I've been thinking about the differences and similarities between Virginia's gubernatorial elections in 2005 and 2009. Here are a few off the top of my head. I'd love to hear your thoughts as well. Thanks.National Presidential Approval
2005: According to CNN/USAToday/Gallup, President Bush's approval rating was at just 40% in September, following Hurricanes Katrina and Rita and also due to growing disapproval of the Iraq war.
2009: President Obama's approval rating is currently around 56/37, according to Gallup.
Virginia Presidential Approval
2005: According to SurveyUSA, President Bush had a 42/52 (-10) approval rating in Virginia in August.
2009: According to Public Policy Polling, President Obama has a 42/51 (-9) approval rating in Virginia in August.
Virginia Governor Approval
2005: According to SurveyUSA, Governor Mark Warner was at 55/31 (+24) approval in July.
2009: According to PPP, it's 42/40 (+2) for Tim Kaine right now.
Governor's Race Poll
2005: A SurveyUSA poll (8/6-8/9) had the race as Jerry Kilgore 48%-Tim Kaine 43% (+5 R).
2009: Pollster.com has it at McDonnell 52%-Deeds 40% (+13 R) right now.
Governor's Race Trend
2005: SurveyUSA had Tim Kaine gaining ground on Jerry Kilgore, going from 10 points down in June to 5 points down in early August.
2009: Pollster.com has Bob McDonnell gaining ground on Creigh Deeds, going from about a 3-4 point lead for McDonnell in June to a 12-point lead in early August.
Non-quantifiable Factors
2005: Democrats were angry and energized after Bush's defeat of John Kerry; Republicans were starting to become a bit apathetic, complacent, and/or demoralized. The netroots was buzzing with energy for Democrats and against Republicans, who controlled Congress and the White House. Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, with mismanagement by FEMA (headed by "heck of a job Brownie") and many other screwups (rhetorical and substantive), harmed the Republican "brand." There was no Democratic gubernatorial primary.
2009: Republicans are angry and energized (against what, it's hard to say exactly, but they are); Democrats are somewhat complacent, burned out, and discouraged. Dem's control the White House and Congress. There was a rough, rock-em sock-em Democratic primary.
