The just-released Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll of Virginia is much closer than either SurveyUSA (55%-40% McDonnell) or Public Policy Polling (51%-37% McDonnell). In this poll, it's an 8-point lead for McDonnell, 51%-43%, over Deeds (compared to a 45/44 lead for McDonnell in the June 15-17 Research 2000 poll). Other interesting tidbits from the poll.*McDonnell has a 57/38 favorable rating, compared to 46/40 for Deeds. Barack Obama has a 51/44 favorable rating in Virginia.
*McDonnell leads by 17 points (57/40) among men but trails (45/46) among women.
*McDonnell has 88% of Republicans supporting him, while Deeds has just 77% of Democrats.
*Among independents, it's McDonnell 55%-Deeds 40%.
*McDonnell leads among whites (65/33), but Deeds leads among blacks (72/6), Hispanics (69/25) and "other" (71/24).
*McDonnell leads among older voters (particularly those over 45) while Deeds leads among younger voters (18-29). Among voters aged 30-44, McDonnell has a slight (48/44) edge.
*Deeds is winning NOVA 65/27, while McDonnell's winning "rest of state" 60/35.
UPDATE: From the DKos analysis.
Deeds is moving backwards while McDonnell is holding steady -- not a trend that points to victory. And unlike the primary, Deeds won't be able to win by laying low and watching his opponents nuke each other. He's got to reverse his favorability slide while chipping away at McDonnell's. So far, that's obviously not happening.
