So here's the bottom line in the race for governor right now: Bob McDonnell leads Creigh Deeds among registered voters by a relatively solid 7 points (47%-40% according to the new Washington Post poll) but by a whopping 15 points (54%-39%) among likely voters. In other words, we've got a huge enthusiasm gap right now between Republicans (more enthusiastic) and Democrats (not so much), which is exactly what other polls, like SurveyUSA and PPP, have been indicating. However, even if Democrats were to close that enthusiasm gap, the Washington Post poll still shows Creigh Deed losing to Bob McDonnell, albeit "only" by 7 points, which is a healthy lead but certainly one that could be overcome. In short, one big question is, who will show up to vote on November 3, people currently considered "likely" or a different voter universe? If it's the latter, we're in deep you-know-what. If it's the former, we've still got an uphill battle but it's possible.A few other questions and comments from the Washington Post poll results.
*Is this a "change" or a "continuity" election? According to this poll, it's sort of both, with 47% of Virginians saying the Commonwealth's moving in the "right direction" and 45%" saying "wrong direction"
*Are people following this election closely? Not particularly, with more (51%) saying "not too closely" or "not at all" than those (48%) who say "very" or "fairly" closely.
*What do people care about right now? The #1 issue, at 28%, is the economy/jobs/unemployment. Trailing significantly behind are education, health care and taxes (each at 8%), then transportation (7%) and the budget deficit (5%). Social issues (e.g, "guns, god and gays") and environmental issues are pretty much nowhere to be found on the list.
*Do people know much about Creigh Deeds and Bob McDonnell? No. Only 6% of Virginians say they know "a lot" about Deeds, and only 7% say they know "a lot" about McDonnell (another 31% and 30%, respectively, say they know "a fair amount"). In my opinion, that result, combined with the "enthusiasm gap," leads to the big lead for Bob McDonnell, who is running around the Commonwealth portraying himself as a "moderate" even though he most certainly is not. Unfortunately, only about 6% or 7% of Virginians know the details behind why that's the case.
*Will the backing of Tim Kaine, Mark Warner, and Jim Webb be helpful to Creigh Deeds this fall? Potentially yes, given that they all have net "positive" approval ratings (although Kaine's are significantly lower than in 2006-2008).
*Will the backing of Barack Obama be helpful to Creigh Deeds this fall? Hard to say, with 34% each saying Obama's support will make them "more" or "less" likely to vote for Deeds. Given that Democrats are the ones who apparently need to be fired up (and "ready to go" to the polls), I'd say that Deeds benefits overall the more President Obama comes into Virginia (particularly "blue" areas).
*As bad as transportation is in Virginia, do people support raising taxes to pay for "new road and transit projects?" On balance, the answer is "no," by a 56%-41% margin.
*If abortion were a top issue for Virginians right now (which it isn't, according to this poll), where do they stand? Pretty much the same as in past years, with a clear majority (55%-37% among all Virginians) in favor of keeping abortion legal in "all" or "most" cases." Only 15% of Virginians believe that abortion should be outlawed in "all cases." Ken Cucinnelli is basically one of them, as is Bob Marshall.
*Is Virginia "blue," "red" or "purple." It depends how you look at it. If you look at registered voters, Democrats have an edge over Republicans 31%-29%, with independents at 35%. That's pretty "purple." However, if you look at likely voters, Republicans lead Democrats 34%-27%, with independents at 34%. That's more "reddish." Once again, the "enthusiasm gap" rears its ugly (if you're a Democrat) head.
*Is Virginia more "conservative," "moderate" or "liberal?" Again, it depends on how you look at it, with the "likely voter sample" skewed conservative, while the broader, "registered voter" pool has "moderates" in the lead (42%, with 35% conservative and 21% liberal). Also worth pointing out is that, among "likely voters," the number calling themselves "conservative" has surged since the late October 2008 (from 32% to 41%). In short, we have a different electorate today than we did just 9-10 months ago. Amazing.
In sum, Democrats have to do two major things over the next 77 days or we'll most likely lose badly on November 3:
1. Get their people enthused and out to vote.
2. Educate Virginians about Bob McDonnell and how he is not a moderate.
No problem, right? Ha.
