I'm looking at the SurveyUSA internals, and several things are jumping out at me.*Terry McAuliffe, best friend of the Clintons, is winning among Obama voters, and by a wide margin at that (41% McAuliffe, 23% Moran, 16% Deeds).
*More evidence of Terry doing best among Obama voters: 71% of Obama voters go to Terry in the general, as opposed to 69% for Creigh and only 63% for Moran. I tell you I'm schocked - shocked! - that Obama voters prefer Terry's optimism, clear message, focus on jobs and the economy. What ARE my fellow Obama voters thinking? :)
*Terry is winning among men, with 38% compared to 34% for Creigh Deeds and just 20% for Brian Moran. Terry is winning among women, with 38% compared to 24% for Moran and just 13% for Deeds.
*Terry is winning the African American vote by a wide margin, with 46% of the vote compared to 27% for Creigh and - shockingly - just 7% for Brian Moran. Terry is also winning the white vote, with 37% to 26% for Moran and 20% for Deeds.
*In terms of age, Terry is romping among voters aged 50 or greater (47% for Terry, 17% each for Creigh Deeds and Brian Moran). Among voters aged 35-49, Terry edges out Moran 35%-34% (with 13% for Deeds). Among voters aged 18-34, Creigh Deeds wins 41% vs. 23% for Terry McAuliffe and 19% for Brian Moran.
*In terms of ideology, Moran leads among just one group - liberals - but only by a 31%-28%-27% margin over Terry and Creigh. Terry romps among moderates with 43% of the vote, compared to 19% for Creigh and 18% for Moran. Terry also wins conservatives with 37%, versus 27% for Creigh and 19% for Moran.
*Regionally, Terry wins everywhere except for NOVA, where Moran holds a 47%-24%-12% lead over Terry and Creigh. In Southeast Virginia, Terry wins 62% of the vote, versus 11% for Creigh and just 4% for Moran. Wow. In bad news for Creigh, Shenandoah is splitting 33% Terry-31% Creigh (with 19% to Moran). Even worse news for Creigh in Central Virginia, where Terry leads him 40%-33% (again, Moran trails far behind at 11%). In short, Terry McAuliffe is demonstrating broad appeal across Virginia, while Creigh Deeds (to a lesser extent) and Brian Moran (to an enormous extent) appear to be more regional candidates. Moran has a particular reason to be worried about these numbers, as despite holding a significant lead in NOVA, he is tanking in the rest of the state.
*Brian Moran now does the worst against Bob McDonnell (trailing by 12 points) of the three Democratic gubernatorial contenders (Creigh does the best, followed closely by Terry). So much for Moran's electability argument. In fact, it appears that, if anything, Moran is the Democratic candidate who's least electable in November, not Creigh or Terry.
