I wanted to point out two excellent diaries on the Virginia governor's race that came out in the last 24 hours or so.First, Ben Tribbett has a fascinating analysis. Here's an excerpt.
So what's does Terry's $7,000,000 do versus Creigh's $2,500,000 and Brian's $2,000,000 on voter contact? In the past a week of network television in the NoVA media market (with a good buy that the average person sees 10 times in a week) was about $690,000. The recession has moved that back to about $500,000 right now. To buy every other market in Virginia at that same level is about $200,000 per week, so that is a total of $700,000 for one week of statewide television. Unless Creigh or Brian want to blow 1/3 of their total spending on TV for the last week of the primary, they are both probably priced out of a statewide TV buy.No argument here.
[...]
Overall- the one clear message from these reports is Terry McAuliffe is the favorite for the nomination- Creigh's only real chance to win is with low NoVA turnout, and Brian's only road the nomination is with high NoVA turnout and winning a huge share of that vote. But depending which way the ball bounces in Northern Virginia, there is still a plausible road to the nomination for all three candidates heading into the home stretch...
Second, here's an analysis by my favorite blogger ever (besides "Pastor John"), "Mark Warner is God." Calling the first quarter fundraising numbers an "ass-whooping" by Terry McAuliffe over Brian Moran and Creigh Deeds, "Mark Warner is God" writes:
Now - I was an Obama supporter during the primaries. I found most of Hillary's flaks to be annoying/borderline insane/offensively condescending. Except for Terry. McAuliffe was borderline insane but also hilarious.So, whose analysis is better, Ben Tribbett's or "Mark Warner is God"'s? I mean, it's pretty hard to beat Mark Warner. Or God. :)
The man's zeal for Hillary was frustrating but infectious. No matter how annoyed I was with her campaign, I could always laugh at McAuliffe. He has passion for causes.
He's bringing that passion in unexpected ways to the Virginia Governor's race. He's a hard guy not to like when you're up close to him.
I like Brian Moran. I like Creigh Deeds. But it looks like this primary race is over.
McAuliffe will continue the tradition of a heavily funded top-ticket Virginia Democrat bringing tons of resources to the state party and the lower tier candidates. He seems to have a smart team on board. I'm looking forward to McAuliffe vs McDonnell. The battle of the Mac's.
Cue the comments about Terry being a corporate whore in 5...4...3...2...1!
