PPP: Deeds' Chances "close to nil" Without Higher Black Turnout

I couldn't agree more with PPP's analysis here:

I think the most interesting thing that few are paying attention to about last week's Washington Post Virginia poll is that it projects just 12% black turnout in a 20% black state.

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It's going to be very difficult for Deeds to win unless the black percentage of the electorate is in the high teens. At 12% his chances are zero unless Bob McDonnell is caught with Edwin Edwards' proverbial 'dead girl or live boy.'

If I was the Deeds campaign getting black people excited about the election would probably be my #1 goal for the last three weeks- I don't know if it can be done but the chances of victory without it are close to nil.

Now, I realize I've been harping on this since the primary, but I'll say it again: the Deeds campaign needs to be focusing on the urban crescent of Virginia, the heavily populated - and highly diverse - part of the state stretching from Hampton Roads through Richmond/C-ville up to NOVA. That's also where most of the state's African Americans live, the same African Americans who PPP says (and I agree 100%) are utterly crucial to any chance of Democratic victory in Virginia this year (or any year).

So why is it, with just 3 weeks to go, that we still have Creigh Deeds campaigning in the Shenandoah Valley and far SWVA, beautiful parts of the state but ones where very few African Americans happen to reside? How is this going to help ramp up African American turnout from 12% to the the "high teens?" Also, while we're on this subject, shouldn't the Shenandoah Valley and SWVA - aka "Deeds Country" - have been locked down for Deeds a long time ago and attention turned elsewhere? And if it hasn't been locked down for Deeds by now, why hasn't it been? Finally, I could swear that I was told months ago by the Deeds folks that after Labor Day it would pretty much be "all urban crescent, all the time" for Creigh. What the heck happened with that? I'm baffled, especially given the urgent (and absolutely crucial) need - as PPP correctly points out - to ramp up African American turnout big time over the next 3 weeks. Anyone understand what's going on here?