My last House of Delegates forecast as done on 10/11/09. At the time, Creigh Deeds appeared to be trailing Bob McDonnell by about 7 or 8 points. Today, McDonnell's lead has mushroomed to about 11 points according to Pollster.com, with some indications that it could even be worse (PPP has it +15 McDonnell; SurveyUSA has it +17 McDonnell). Given the deteriorating poll numbers, I've revised my HoD rankings.
3rd District. Del. Dan Bowling (D) vs. James Morefield (R)
Moves from Leans Democratic retention to Tossup.
6th District. Del. Anne Crockett-Stark (R) vs. Carole Pratt (D)
Remains at Leans Republican retention. Sigh.
7th District. Del. Dave Nutter (R) vs. Peggy Frank (D)
Remains at Leans Republican retention.
13th District. Del. Bob Marshall (R) vs. John Bell (D)
Moves from Leans Republican retention to Likely Republican retention.
14th District. Del. Danny Marshall (R) vs. Seward Anderson (D)
Moves from Slight lean Republican retention to Leans Republican retention.
21st District. Del. Bobby Mathieson (D) vs. Ronald Villaneuva (R)
Remains at Leans Democratic retention.
23rd District. Del. Shannon Valentine (D) vs. Scott Garrett (R)
Moves from Likely Democratic retention to Slight lean Democratic retention.
32nd District. Del. David Poisson (D) vs. Thomas "Tag" Greason (R)
Moves from Likely Democratic retention to Leans Democratic retention.
34th District. Del. Margi Vanderhye (D) vs. Barbara Comstock (R)
Moves from Slight Lean Democratic retention to Toss Up.
35th District. James Hyland (R) vs. Mark Keam (D)
Moves from Leans Democratic retention to Slight Lean Democratic retention.
42nd District. Del. Dave Albo (R) vs. Greg Werkheiser (D)
Moves from Slight Lean Republican retention to Leans Republican retention.
44th District. James McConville (R) vs. Scott Surovell (D)
Moves from Likely Democratic retention to Leans Democratic retention.
50th District. Del. Jackson Miller (R) vs. Jeanette Rishell (D)
Remains at Likely Republican retention.
51st District. Del. Paul Nichols (D) vs. Richard Anderson (R)
Moves from Leans Democratic retention to Tossup.
52nd District. Rafael Lopez (R) vs. Luke Torian (D)
Remains a Likely Democratic pickup
58th District. Del. Robert Bell (R) vs. Cynthia Neff (D)
Remains at Likely Republican retention.
67th District. Del. Chuck Caputo (D) vs. James LeMunyon (R)
Moves from Very VERY slight lean Democratic retention to Tossup.
73th District. Del. John O'Bannon (R) vs. Thomas Shields (D)
Remains at leans Republican retention.
83th District. Del. Joe Bouchard (D) vs. Christopher Stolle (R)
Moves from Slight Lean Republican pickup to Leans Republican pickup.
86th District. Del. Thomas Rust (R) vs. Stevens Miller (D)
Moves from slight lean towards Rust to Leans Republican Retention.
93th District. Del. Philip Hamilton (R) vs. Robin Abbott (D)
Remains a Tossup, maybe slight lean to Abbott.
To sum up: I see a likely Democratic pickup in the 52nd (Torian) and a pretty good shot in the 93rd (Abbott). I see possible Democratic losses in the 3rd (Bowling), the 34th (Vanderhye), the 51st (Nichols), the 67th (Caputo), the 83rd (Bouchard), and possibly the 23rd (Valentine). I'm also a bit worried about the 35th (Keam), possibly even the 44th (Surovell). On balance, it's looking like a bad election day, probably a net of 3-5 seats in the Republican direction if Deeds loses to McDonnell by 10 points or so. Blech.
Blue Virginia
