The Polls at this Point in 2006
Friday, October 23, 2009
The bottom line is that, three years ago at this time, Jim Webb and George Allen were neck-and-neck according to Pete Brodnitz's "internal" poll numbers. For comparison purposes, here are a few public poll results from the same time period.
Zogby/WSJ (10/28/06): Webb 51%-Allen 47%
Garin/Hart/Yang (10/26-29/06): Webb 47%-Allen 43%
Rasmussen Reports (10/27/06): Allen 49%-Webb 48%
SurveyUSA (10/25/06): Allen 49%-Webb 46%
LA Times/Bloomberg (10/24/06): Webb 47%-Allen 44%
Mason-Dixon (10/23/06): Allen 47%-Webb 43%
As with the "internals," once again we see an extremely tight race as with the public polls, +/- 3 points or so. Unfortunately, this year couldn't be more different, with Creigh Deeds trailing Bob McDonnnell consistently by about 8-10 points.
Aside from the polls, another important factor in 2006 was that Democrats had all the (anti-Bush) energy, Allen was a gaffe machine, and we pounded Allen as voting "96% of the time with Bush." In other words, it was a TOTALLY different situation in 2006 than it is this year, with Democrats kind of half asleep still (or focused on the health care debate, jobs, the economy, etc.) and Republicans fired up. If it's any comfort, this stuff is cyclical, and I'd expect a strong turnaround by 2012 (after probably some "midterm" losses next year). Meanwhile, the important thing to do is keep fighting for Democratic and progressive values -- quality health care for all, equal rights for all, strong action to protect the environment, etc. If we do that, and people see results, we'll be fine. If not, we won't be. How's that for some brilliant analysis? (hey, that's what they DON'T pay me the big bucks for - lol) :)