PPP, SurveyUSA Indicate Landslide for GOP on 11/3

Tuesday, October 27, 2009

The polling news this morning has gone from horrible to abominable. First, here's SurveyUSA:

*McDonnell leads Deeds by 17 points, 58%-41%
*Bolling leads Wagner by 14 points, 56%-42%
*Cuccinelli leads Shannon by 16 points, 57%-41%

Now, here's PPP:

*McDonnell leads Deeds by 15 points, 55%-40%
*Bolling leads Wagner by 12 points, 50%-38%
*Cuccinelli leads Shannon by 16 points, 52%-36%

Enjoy the landslide. Barf.

UPDATE: This might be a good time to review NLS's "McDonnell +10" scenario, which would "lead to a GOP pickup in the House of 2-5 seats, giving the Republican Caucus 57-60 seats overall." There's also the "McDonnell +15" scenario, which would "likely lead to a GOP pickup in the House of 6-9 seats, giving the Republican Caucus 61-64 seats overall." My current prediction is for a net GOP pickup in the House of Delegates of around 5 seats.

UPDATE #2: With regard to the downballot races, this analysis by PPP is ominous.
There is some indication in the recent polls that Democratic voters are giving up on this race. At the beginning of September 38% of likely voters were Democrats. By the end of the month it was 37%, a week ago it was down to 33% and now it's at just 31%. That trend has major implications for the party's candidates further down the ballot.
This is exactly why, no matter what we think of Creigh Deeds or his campaign, we can't give up: there are many excellent House of Delegates candidates - incumbents and challengers - who could be swept out to sea if this turns into a Category 5 hurrricane (or is "tsunami" a better metaphor?). That would be a disaster for redistricting, as well as for putting a check on Bob McDonnell if/when he's governor.