Public Policy Polling
is hinting at the results of its upcoming Virginia poll tomorrow. The key point is that "56% of Bob McDonnell voters are 'very excited' about casting their ballot for Governor this fall [while only] 34% of Creigh Deeds supporters are." Obviously, that's a huge problem. And if that's not bad enough, PPP concludes:
We're looking at a McCain +6 electorate this year in a state that was Obama +6 last year. There's no path to victory if that stays true through election day. We'll see how much good the visits from Obama, Bill Clinton, and other leading national Democrats do in the last few weeks but there is a lot of ground to make up.
Also worth noting: PPP says that we're looking at "a McCain +6 electorate" right now. In contrast,
PPP's last poll had "the likely electorate vot[ing] for Barack Obama by a 48-45 margin." Given that the last poll had McDonnell leading 48%-43% with that +3 Obama electorate, my guess is that a +6 McCain electorate means a swing of as many as 9 points towards McDonnell in the poll coming out tomorrow. Is my reasoning on this faulty? If so, how?
