The current partisan breakdown of the Virginia House of Delegates is 53 Republicans, 43 Democrats, 2 Independents and 2 vacancies (both Democrats - Frank Hall and Ken Melvin - who resigned). The following are the races I believe are competitive, even if just barely. I'm assuming that all other incumbents will be reelected, and that there will be no other party switches. In addition, for the sake of this analysis, and based on information available as of today, I'm assuming a Bob McDonnell victory over Creigh Deeds by about 7 or 8 points...unfortunately.
3rd District. Del. Dan Bowling (D) vs. James Morefield (R)
This may be close, but given his incumbency and financial edge, Bowling should hang on here. Leans Democratic retention.
6th District. Del. Anne Crockett-Stark (R) vs. Carole Pratt (D)
Pratt has run a strong race (including a financial advantage as of 8/31/09) and Crockett-Stark has not run a particularly strong race. However, given the predicted loss at the top of the ticket, I'll have to give this one to Crockett-Stark by a small margin. Leans Republican retention. Sigh.
7th District. Del. Dave Nutter (R) vs. Peggy Frank (D)
Nutter defeated Frank in 2007 by a 53%-47% margin. Unfortunately, given the predicted loss by Deeds to McDonnell, as well as the Republican lean of this district (went to Jerry Kilgore, George Allen and John McCain) I don't see Frank as being able to defeat Nutter this year. Leans Republican retention.
13th District. Del. Bob Marshall (R) vs. John Bell (D)
Bob Marshall beat Bruce Roemmelt 58%-42% in 2007. This year, John Bell has run a significantly stronger race (including $$$ raised) than Roemmelt did in 2007, but Democrats are facing a headwind this time around as opposed the a tailwind in 2007. As much as I like John Bell and can't stand "Sideshow Bob," I'm predicting that Marshall wins - although probably not by much - once again. I really REALLY hope I'm wrong. Leans Republican retention.
14th District. Del. Danny Marshall (R) vs. Seward Anderson (D)
This one is going to be close in a district that has gone for Kaine, Allen and Obama in recent years (it also went to Creigh Deeds over Bob McDonnell by 2 points in 2005, which is encouraging). Also, Marshall only won by 4 points last time around over Democrat Adam Tomer. However, this year's tougher for Democrats than 2007 and Marshall had the financial edge as of 8/31/09, so I'd have to give Marshall the slight edge. Slight lean Republican retention.
21st District. Del. Bobby Mathieson (D) vs. Ronald Villaneuva (R)
Mathieson defeated an incumbent (John Welch) won this generally Democratic-leaning district by 16 points in 2007, so you'd think he should have no problem holding the seat as an incumbent himself. However, Bob McDonnell should run strongly in Virginia Beach and Villaneuva has been elected citywide twice previously. Given all that, plus a problem on his campaign involving a staffer embezzling funds, I'm forecasting a much narrower victory (3-5 points?) for Mathieson this time around. Leans Democratic retention.
23rd District. Del. Shannon Valentine (D) vs. Scott Garrett (R)
Valentine has a huge cash-on-hand advantage and should hold on in this closely-divided (along partisan lines) district. Likely Democratic retention.
32nd District. Del. David Poisson (D) vs. Thomas "Tag" Greason (R)
I'm not impressed with Greason's campaign in any way (including this bizarre incident). Poisson, who also had a big cash-on-hand advantage as of 8/31/09, should hang on here in a district that went for Obama, Webb, Kaine and Byrne (but interestingly, not Deeds). Likely Democratic retention.
34th District. Del. Margi Vanderhye (D) vs. Barbara Comstock (R)
Margi narrowly won this seat two years ago, defeating Dave Hunt 51%-48%. This time around, Margi is facing an extremely well-funded opponent (with a cash-on-hand edge as of 8/31/09) in a tough year for Democrats. For those reasons, I'm very worried about this seat. However, given the fact that the district went for Obama, Webb, Kaine, Byrne and Deeds, I'm calling it a "slight lean Democratic retention" right now. Go Margi!
35th District. James Hyland (R) vs. Mark Keam (D)
This is Steve Shannon's district and Keam is a strong candidate with a big cash-on-hand edge as of 8/31/09. Also, Hyland lost here in 2005 by 20 points (60%-40%). Again, however, we have the problem this year of a headwind against Democrats. Still, I think that Keam has run a strong enough campaign to win and am calling this one "leans Democratic retention."
42nd District. Del. Dave Albo (R) vs. Greg Werkheiser (D)
Werkheiser lost to Albo in 2005 by 4 points (52%-48%). Since then, Albo has come up with the infamous "abusive driver fees" idea, which didn't do anything to endear him to 42nd district voters. On the other hand, Werkheiser took off a cycle (I'm convinced he would have beaten Albo in 2007), and over the past year or two anger over the "abuser fees" has largely subsided. Also, Albo had a cash-on-hand advantage as of 8/31/09. Given all that, I'm calling this one a slight lean for Albo to hang on...
44th District. James McConville (R) vs. Scott Surovell (D)
This is a solid "blue" district (Obama/Webb/Kaine/Byrne/Deeds), Scott is a great candidate who has worked his butt off and has raised a ton of money. Scott will win and will make a great delegate. Likely Democratic retention.
50th District. Del. Jackson Miller (R) vs. Jeanette Rishell (D)
Miller beat Rishell 60%-40% in 2007, and I see no reason that will change this year. Likely Republican retention.
51st District. Del. Paul Nichols (D) vs. Richard Anderson (R)
Nichols defeated a weak candidate - Faisal Gill - by just 4 points in 2007, and this year is tougher. On the other hand, Barack Obama carried this district with about 59% of the vote last year. Overall, I'd say this race leans to Nichols, but not by much (if at all). Let's hope Anderson's negative (and false, according to former 'Skins safety Curtis Jordan) attacks on Nichols backfire.
52nd District. Rafael Lopez (R) vs. Luke Torian (D)
This is Jeff Frederick's old district, but it also went 63% for Barack Obama in 2008. I haven't heard that Torian's a great candidate, but I've heard that Lopez is very weak. I'd say this is a likely pickup for the blue team.
58th District. Del. Robert Bell (R) vs. Cynthia Neff (D)
This is a 48% Obama district, but the electorate is going to be totally different this year. Also, Bell has a huge (6:1) cash edge on Neff. I'd say this one's likely Republican retention.
67th District. Del. Chuck Caputo (D) vs. James LeMunyon (R)
Caputo won last time around by just 5 points, and from what I'm hearing, it could be even closer this year. I'd say that Caputo will hang on in the end - if for no other reason than he had a cash-on-hand advantage as of 8/31/09 - but not by much. Very VERY slight lean Democratic retention, possibly even "tossup."
73th District. Del. John O'Bannon (R) vs. Thomas Shields (D)
This is Eric Cantor's old district, but it's trending Democratic, with Obama winning 48% of the vote last year. Also, Shields has run a strong race. However, given the overall headwind against Democrats this year, plus O'Bannon's incumbent (and money) advantages, I'd have to say it leans Republican retention. Still, Shields is a promising candidate and I'm very much hoping he runs again if he comes up short this year.
83th District. Del. Joe Bouchard (D) vs. Christopher Stolle (R)
I like Joe Bouchard a great deal, as he's one of the strongest environmentalists in the House of Delegates. Two years ago, Bouchard beat Stolle by 131 votes (out of 9,535 cast). This time around, my guess is that it's going down to the wire again, with a slight lean towards "Republican pickup." C'mon Joe, you can do it! :)
86th District. Del. Thomas Rust (R) vs. Stevens Miller (D)
This one's highly intriguing: a strongly "blue" district that went 62% for Obama last year (and also for Webb, Kaine, Byrne and Deeds) and which Rust only held by 6 points in 2007 against an underfunded Democrat (Jay Donahue). In addition, Stevens Miller has run a strong race (although Rust maintained a big cash-on-hand advantage as of 8/31/09). I'm tempted to call this one a pure tossup, except for the problem at the top of the ticket. Given that, it's probably a slight lean towards Rust, but Miller has a real shot, especially if Deeds performs well in NOVA.
93th District. Del. Philip Hamilton (R) vs. Robin Abbott (D)
If there's any justice in the world - literally, in this case - the corrupt Hamilton should be toast. I mean, heck, even Bob McDonnell and Bill Bolling have called on Hamilton to step aside. Also, Abbott's a strong candidate. If it weren't for the top of the ticket, combined with Hamilton's cash-on-hand edge, I'd say this one definitely leans Democratic pickup. Given the likely McDonnell victory, however, I'd call this one a tossup, maybe slight lean to Abbott.
To sum up: I see a likely Democratic pickup in the 52nd (Torian), a pretty good shot in the 93rd (Abbott), a possible shot in the 86th (Miller), and a longer shot in the 13th (John Bell). On the other hand, I see possible Democratic losses in the 83rd (Bouchard), possibly even the 34th (Vanderhye), the 51st (Nichols), and/or the 67th (Caputo). On balance, it's looking like a wash on election day, maybe +1 or +2 in either direction, but probably more likely +1 or +2 in the Republican direction if Deeds loses to McDonnell by more than a few points.
Blue Virginia
