RPV favorite Chris Stolle who can’t raise money on his own, but is happy for handouts, is the PAC rehab project; then there is the infamous Delegate Hamilton, a jobs program for one; and the city councilman who would set a legislative absence record; plus the napping Delegate Purkey.Each of these races highlights some different aspect of politics in Virginia. The other Hampton Roads contests look to maintain the status quo, so these will be the focus, providing a supplement to Lowell Feld's prognosis of 10/11/09.
The nail biter is the 83rd. If his television ads were parodies they would be laugh riot hilarious. Dr. Chris Stolle (R), Republican candidate for the House of Delegates, shown with the Navy base as a backdrop talking about jobs and being a veteran. That would be the Navy base that Delegate Joe Bouchard (D-83rd-Virginia Beach) commanded. We don’t hear about Stolle’s commands.
We see Dr. Stolle holding what he calls a plan to create jobs because “he knows how,” as a small businessman. You wonder if he knows the difference between a professional and an entrepreneur. He holds the vaunted jobs plan in much the same way George Allen held the application for lifetime membership in the NAACP the night in Hampton he was cornered into joining; between thumb and forefinger and away, as though it might bite him. Odd that he doesn’t talk much about being a physician and when he does he calls for a Canadian style healthcare system without realizing it. He does that kind of thing a lot when he talks about issues. Recall that he would argue that based upon the fact we don’t receive a proxy from the ABC Stores, Virginia doesn’t really own them. Odder that if he’s been so successful creating jobs he doesn’t open up his business’s payroll records to show us just how many jobs he’s created during the past year; a perfect proof source. Or, explain the role of a legislator creating jobs. Apparently he failed to mention to his campaign manager his ardent support of the infamous regional transportation taxing authority that included “abusive driver fees.” Here’s a crafty little volley she aimed at Bouchard:“We've known all along that Joe has a radical "anti-driver" agenda - he's also advocated having Virginia consider taxing every vehicle mile driven.” – Missi SousaMissi, ‘a radical “anti-driver” agenda?’: did you pick that up in Honors Poli Sci at Holy Cross or in the RNC basement? Did the Jesuits smile on twisted truth? Do you actually discuss anything with Dr Stolle or do you just feed him push poll lines?
But there is big money on the line here. Floods of cash from outside the district. And though the newer TV commercial with the parrot intended to symbolize Bouchard mimicking Pelosi is not very effective or believable (we are a bit surprised that Joe is on the tips of every DC tongue), I am sure they are cuing up a charge of “environmental whacko” in the backroom somewhere. I didn’t know just how much the Republicans respect Bouchard until this onslaught. He must actually be doing a lot right. In one area he holds distinction: constituent services and outreach. Teetering Democratic retention, but the attacks aren’t over.
And in the 93rd: Hamilton (R). At least Nixon waited to get elected to be caught in the lies. But despite all that has come to light, there is a bit of old Southern real politic in the Newport News electorate: he’s a crook, but he’s our crook. And unless the GOTV for Robin Abbott (D) in James City County is extraordinary, he’ll be in office when he is eventually charged. Republican retention.
Though Delegate Sal Iaquinto (R-84th-Virginia Beach) is having a fundraiser with the theme “The Case of the Missing Opponent,” that theme is much more appropriate for the race in the 21st where Delegate Mathieson (D) faces Virginia Beach City Councilmember Ron Villanueva (R), who has attended fewer local campaign events than his meager city council meeting attendance record would predict. Villanueva is the least enthusiastic candidate for delegate in this region, and maybe statewide (any bets if he will show for his golf tournament fundraiser the 23rd?), but he will close the gap Mathieson opened on Delegate Welch (R) in 2007 for the reasons we all fear will increase the majority in the House this year. Democratic retention.
And then there is the 82nd. This is a race well worth the investment to win with an accomplished Democratic challenger to the self-proclaimed financial prophet of Atlantic Avenue. But Merrill Lynch has moved its office off the avenue and lost its reputation, though we never heard whether Delegate Purkey (R) forfeited his TARP fueled bonus from the beleaguered recipient of those funds. And if he didn't get a bonus, considering those who did, what does that say? In fact, Purkey rarely mentions Merrill at all anymore. Peter Schmidt (D) is a true entrepreneur rather than the street corner pariahs we hear a lot from nowadays. He has run a resourceful campaign featuring among other events an impressive town hall on transportation. And in an exception to the coattail theories abounding, the fact that Jody Wagner is a resident of his district has worked to his advantage. Schmidt is well known in the community and a former City Councilman. This is a district that can surprise and many of its residents are independent minded. In any other year, this would be a lock for Schmidt. If McDonnell Republicans become overconfident and stay home: Schmidt surprises.
In the end, this does not change Lowell's assessment that "it's looking like a wash on election day, maybe +1 or +2 in either direction, but probably more likely +1 or +2 in the Republican direction if Deeds loses to McDonnell by more than a few points." This morning's hint that the statewide strategy may change over the next few days amounts to too little too late to alter this meaningfully.
Cross posted at VBDems
