I'm not quite sure what to make of this:Talking to both Democrats and Republicans, here and around the rest of the commonwealth, I don't hear much buzz about the prospects of Democrats knocking off incumbent Republican Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling in the fall. Democrats certainly feel they have a close-to-even shot of winning the governorship, and better-than-even prospects of regaining the attorney general's slot, but despite a lot of intra-party noise generated by the four Democratic contenders for the number-two job, the middle of the batting order may stay in GOP ranks for four more years.Personally, my belief is that our chances of beating Bill Bolling this November depend greatly on who our nominee is. For instance, if it's Jody Wagner, I see a potential shellacking in store. Why do I say this? Because Wagner's core rationale for her candidacy is that she was Tim Kaine's finance director. The problem is, Virginia's finances aren't in the greatest of shape, to put it mildly.
Now, I don't for a minute believe that this is primarily Jody Wagner's - or Tim Kaine's - fault. Instead, it's the result of a national economic downturn, combined with continued foolish policies like Gilmore's "no car tax," the House Republicans' aversion to ever raising taxes ("fees" and "regional taxing authorities" are fine). There's also the foolish repeal of the estate tax, currently costing Virginia more than $100 million per year. Still, just imagine if Wagner could run ads saying, "as Tim Kaine's finance secretary, I left Virginia with a huge surplus, money we spent on education, health care, the environment, public safety, and tax breaks for working Virginians." Now THAT would be powerful politically. Unfortunately, she can't say that, and in fact it's hard to see what her ads would say exactly.
On the other side, it's easy to picture the ads Bill Bolling will run against Wagner:
As Tim Kaine's finance secretary, Jody Wagner presided over huge budget deficits. Her office consistently overestimated revenue forecasts and underestimated the extent of our state's budget problems. Then, just before Gov. Kaine announced major, across-the-board budget cuts, Wagner announced she was leaving...to run for lieutenant governor. Is this the kind of leadership we want for Virginia? Bill Bolling for Governor.Not to single out Wagner, but honestly I believe that any of the Democratic LG candidates will have a tough time against Bill Bolling. For my money, I believe our best shot is to go with someone new, like Mike Signer or maybe Jon Bowerbank, and attack Bolling on his lack of accomplishments, his right-wing ideology, his past business dealings (e.g., the "Enron of the insurance industry," where he was an executive), etc. Thoughts?
P.S. Just to be clear, I don't believe that anyone is "unbeatable," if for no other reason than a candidate can make all kinds of gaffes and mistakes. Also, it's certainly possible that Virginia Democrats will feel reenergized come November and turn out in huge numbers. If that happens, we will be in good shape no matter who our nominees happen to be.
