I see over at Too Conservative that they're quite pleased over the fact that "Bob McDonnell is leading by double digits in a new Rasmussen poll." In the poll, McDonnell has a 10-15 point lead over the three Democratic gubernatorial candidates. To be completely honest, I'd be pleased too if the poll numbers were reversed. Having said that, here are a few points that Virginia Republicans might want to consider before they get too excited:1. Bob McDonnell doesn't crack 50% against any of the Dem's. In fact, he tops out at 45%. Last I checked, you can't win with 45% of the vote in a 2-person race.
2. Right now, Dem's are in the middle of a heated primary campaign, but if you think we're not going to come together after June 9 against a Pat Robertson clone, think again!
3. You might also want to consider another Rasmussen Poll, this one from March 27, 2008. At that time, President-to-be John McCain was leading Sen. Hillary Clinton 58%-36% and Sen. Barack Obama 52%-41%. Oh, wait, you mean John McCain didn't win that election in the end? And wait, Barack Obama won Virginia 53%-46% and was elected President, while John McCain went back to the U.S. Senate (Sarah Palin went back to her Alaska family values)? You mean that Rasmussen poll back in March 2008 didn't predict the outcome in November? I'll tell you, I'm shocked - SHOCKED I tell you! :)
4. You might also want to consider this Rasmussen Poll, from April 29, 2006, in which Jim Webb trailed Sen. George Allen 50%-30% in the midst of...yeah, you guessed it, a heated Democratic primary contest! Last I checked, Jim Webb had "Senator" in front of his name these days, while George Allen has "businessman" or whatever.
5. Finally, one last Rasmussen Poll, this time from April 16, 2005. In that poll, Governor Jerry Kilgore led former Lieutenant Governor Tim Kaine by 8 points, 44%-36% (note: a SurveyUSA poll from July 1 had Kilgore ahead by 10 points, 49%-39%).
So, Virginia Republicans: gloat now, because these poll results will all change after June 9 when Democrats enthusiastically unite against the extreme right-wing ticket of McDonnell, Bolling and (probably) Cooch. Or, better yet, keep gloating and let us surprise you all come November! :)
