Ken Boyd Claims "double digit lead" in 5th CD

Monday, January 11, 2010

From Not Andy Sere, I see that Albemarle Supervisor Ken Boyd (R) has released "critical polling information" showing him with a "double digit lead" in the Republican 5th CD nomination race. Here's a table of the poll results, which I think need to be taken with a big grain of salt.

According to this survey, Boyd believes that he will win the 5th CD Republican nomination if turnout is low (21%-10% over Robert Hurt), that he will lose if turnout is "very high" (Hurt 23%-Boyd 10%), and that he will win if "turnout were high but voters knew that Senator Hurt had voted for the largest tax increase in Virginia's history" (Boyd 43%-Hurt 27%).

What to make of this? I see no reason to disagree with Not Andy Sere's analysis:
I have my questions about the poll's methodology, but I'm not too surprised by its conclusion. Ken Boyd comes from one of the largest population centers in the district and probably has a decent following in the Republican establishment in Albemarle and the other suburbs of Charlottesville. Robert Hurt has strong name ID compared to the unelected challengers but probably no more than 30%. And those that know his past are certain to have doubts about supporting him. Ken Boyd is a serious challenger in this race. Here's more information on the impressive team Boyd is putting together to challenge Robert Hurt in the primary.
I'd add that "undecided" leads all the candidates in the low and high-turnout scenarios, with 62% and 63% respectively, which makes this poll somewhat meaningless. Also, I'd point out that Boyd is right to be concerned that Hurt might "buy the nomination;" that is most definitely a possibility. However, Boyd concludes, "If Senator Hurt thinks raising $1 million from Washington will overcome a bunch of small contributions from 5th District Republicans, he may be in for a surprise." We'll see...

UPDATE: In other 5th CD news, Tim Boyer reports that "Robert Hurt Lies to TEA Parties regarding Debates."