Since Creigh Deeds' 18-point loss to Bob McDonnell on November 3, there's been a great deal of discussion as to why this happened. Was it primarily the result of broader factors and trends outside of our control here in Virginia, or was it more an outcome of an inept Democratic candidate/campaign (Deeds) and a skillful Republican (McDonnell)? Or was it some other factor or combination of factors? Obviously, we can't replay history, but it's an interesting intellectual exercise to consider whether a candidate other than Creigh Deeds, perhaps one of the two other Democratic primary candidates - Brian Moran and Terry McAuliffe - might have fared better against Bob McDonnell than Creigh Deeds did? Speaking of which, the other day, McAuliffe said, "We clearly could have and should have won the election." I'm a bit skeptical of such a confident assertion, but I certainly believe we could have made the election a lot closer than 18 points if we had had a stronger candidate. As it turns out, Tim Kaine agrees with me on that point.
Politically, Kaine regretted that Creigh Deeds did not win the gubernatorial race. He said he would have run again if he could, “and I probably could have won pretty easily.” But he also felt he had achieved a larger goal in 2008 — making Virginia competitive in presidential politics — and thus relevant in national politics.Now that's an interesting thought; how would things have turned out if Tim Kaine had been able to run for reelection in 2009 (which he should have been, just as Bob McDonnell should be able to run for reelection in 2013)? My guess is that Bob McDonnell might not have even run against him in the first place. Remember, back in January of this year, Kaine was coming off the triumphant election day of 2008, with Barack Obama winning Virginia, with Democrats picking up 3 seats in the House of Representatives, and with Kaine's approval rating at +17 (54%-37%). Kaine also would have had a huge war chest - probably in the millions of dollars - if he had been prepping for reelection since 2005.
Would Bob McDonnell have given up his Attorney General's job to take on Kaine at the height of his powers? (also note that in late May 2009, Barack Obama was at 60%-36% approval in Virginia) If he had, it would have been an epic battle, but my guess is that Kaine would have had a pretty good chance of prevailing. One thing's for sure about Tim Kaine, he would have assembled a powerhouse campaign team and run a top-notch, well-funded reelection campaign. My guess is that McDonnell would have looked at all this and decided to stay on as AG, leaving a far less potent Republican to run against Tim Kaine governor, and most likely resulting in Kaine's reelection just as he said. What do you think?
