This morning, I listed several things to look for in today's debate, based on Anita Kumar's questions. Here's how they did, IMHO.*"Whose transportation plan will better appeal to Northern Virginians?"
Personally, I'd say "neither." Bob McDonnell's plan relies on ridiculous gimmicks like selling off ABC stores, mythical revenues from offshore drilling that are 99.9% (and I'm being generous here) unlikely to ever appear in the next four years (or ever, most likely), decimating education and other programs paid for out of the general fund, borrowing, etc., etc. HOWEVER, having said all this, I thought McDonnell was - as he always is - very smooth in this debate in making it SEEM like he's the one with the transportation plan and Creigh isn't. For instance, McDonnell said something to the effect of "Frankly, I'm shocked that with 47 days to go, my opponent has no transportation plan." McDonnell basically called Creigh a liar, saying he "knows it's not true that I'll take money from education." And McDonnell counterpunched hard, charging that Creigh's plans "come from general fund too" and that Creigh "voted for cuts to education." I also thought it was a very effective debating technique for McDonnell to hold up a blank piece of paper as Creigh's transportation plan, while his plan was 100-whatever number of pages.
Meanwhile, Creigh said that his transportation plan is on his website (see here) and that "every funding mechanism is on the table" (translation: a gas tax?). He attacked McDonnell's plan indirectly, saying that it's been "disavowed by Democrats, Republicans, newspapers all over the state." But again, McDonnell counterpunched hard, saying "talk to Doug Wilder and he'll explain it to you." Ouch.
Bottom line: I don't think either transportation "plan" has much appeal to NOVA voters (McDonnell's should have none), but I think that McDonnell was more effective (e.g., projecting more confidence) in debating the subject. I did think that Creigh was effective with his "won't rob Peter to pay Paul" line about McDonnell's transportation "plan."
**"How will Deeds respond to questions about federal issues?"
Not well. On cap and trade, Creigh ran away as fast as he could possibly do so without tearing a tendon, declaring point blank, "I don't support the bill." Creigh also blasted cap and trade for "putting Americans out of business" and for "increas[ing] energy costs" (aka, Republican and fossil fuel industry talking points). Needless to say, that's not the way to endear himself to environmentalists or progressives (or anyone who understands the cap and trade bill). On President Obama, Creigh said he liked him personally, but differed with him on key elements of his agenda - cap and trade, Employee Free Choice, federal spending and the debt, some aspects (unspecified - public option, I presume) of health care, etc. Creigh refused to say if he was a "Barack Obama Democrat," offering instead that he was a "Creigh Deeds Democrat" (why not say "I'm a Mark Warner Democrat?"). Hmmmm. Actually, Bob McDonnell might have been more positive about President Obama than Creigh Deeds was, saying "I have great respect for President Obama" and that he agrees with Obama on proposed education reforms (e.g., charter schools).
Bottom line: I don't think Creigh responded effectively to questions about federal issues. At all. What amazes me is that we're now in the middle of September and this subject, which has been problematic for Creigh all along, continues to be problematic. His campaign STILL hasn't figured out an effective response on this? As they say in the military, "Whisky Tango Foxtrot?!?"
*"How will McDonnell react to questions about his graduate thesis and social issues?"
I thought McDonnell was very effective in this area, making it seem like the only person who wanted to talk about this was Creigh. I thought McDonnell was particularly effective when he pointed to his Iraq War veteran daughter and said, with a bit of emotion in his voice, "Frankly, I'm insulted that you'd suggest I don't support working women." McDonnell added that his campaign manager in 2005 was a "working woman," that half his staff as AG was female, and that his daughter who served in Iraq is the "ultimate working woman." I mean, it's probably complete b.s., but I thought it was effective (note: recall that Webb did the same thing in 2006 when he was accused of being a misogynist, pointing out that a large percentage of his campaign leadership - Jessica Vanden Berg, Kristian Denny Todd, Jessica Smith, etc. - were women). McDonnell also said he supported equal pay for women (despite apparently voting against it). He even said he was open to adoption that's in the best interest of the child, "regardless of sexual orientation." Wow.
Bottom line: I thought that McDonnell did very well here, especially for those who aren't intimately familiar with his record in the General Assembly. That would be, in other words, the vast majority of voters who don't spend their lives focused on this stuff like we do. :)
*"Can Deeds win over Northern Virginia voters?"
I didn't see it in this debate. Putting distance between himself and Barack Obama (who is very popular in NOVA), calling cap and trade a job killer (not going to win over many environmentalists or progressives), talking passionately about his long-standing support for gun rights (not a big winner in places like Arlington, Alexandria and Fairfax), opposing EFCA (and talking repeatedly about his strong support for "right to work" laws), and basically not being able to stop McDonnell from saying over and over (and over) again that he (McDonnell, that is) grew up in NOVA (and how important NOVA is to Virginia as its "economic engine," etc.) isn't going to do the trick. Creigh tried to counterattack by pointing out that when he goes to Hampton Roads, he sees "Hampton Roads' Own Bob McDonnell" signs, and when he goes to NOVA, he sees "NOVA's Own Bob McDonnell" signs. I'm just not sure how effective that line will be...
Bottom line: I don't think that Deeds helped himself in NOVA with this debate. One highly knowledgeable, progressive NOVA friend of mine - someone who's heavily involved with Virginia politics - wrote me right after the debate with the line, "Bob McDonnell for Governor." Another knowledgeable, progressive NOVA friend of mine wrote about the same time, "I hope Creigh loses." I'll be asking around more broadly, but so far I'm not hearing a positive reaction to Creigh's debate performance from NOVA progressives. I'm also not hearing a particularly negative one to McDonnell's performance. That's not good.
UPDATE: One area where I thought Creigh was much more effective than McDonnell was on Mark Warner's governorship, and specifically the tax package that saved Virginia's AAA bond rating from Jim Gilmore's disastrous "leadership." The bottom line is that when it came down to it, McDonnell opposed what was possibly the most important action taken by a Virginia governor in decades. Creigh Deeds supported it. To this day, McDonnell stands by his opposition, calling the Warner legislation " the largest tax increase in Virginia history" and saying he wants "to do things better" (better than Mark Warner? is that a joke? is McDonnell saying Mark Warner did a bad job as governor?!?). That alone should make people seriously question McDonnell's judgment, without even getting into "the thesis" and McDonnell's long-held extreme views on a variety of social issues.
