I'm not quite sure what to make of this poll by Research 2000/Daily Kos, but add it into the mix. The numbers that jumped out at me, aside from the top line results (McDonnell 50%-Deeds 43%), are:
*McDonnell leads big time among men (56%-39%), whites (64%-32%), and older people (57%-29% among the 60+ demographic, 55%-43% in the 45-59 age range).
*Deeds leads among women (47%-44%), blacks (78%-4%), Hispanics (68%-23%), "other" (73%-20%), and young people (52%-41% among 18-29 year olds).
*Deeds is ahead by a hard-to-believe 44 points (68%-24%) in NOVA, while McDonnell leads by a similarly hard-to-believe 26 points (60%-34%) in the rest of the state (including Richmond, Charlottesville, Hampton Roads, Southside, and SWVA).
*By a 48%-42% margin, Virginians support "creating a government-administered health insurance option that anyone can purchase to compete with private insurance plans." Support for a "public option) is very high among Democrats (72%-21%), pretty good among independents (49%-39%) and not too good among Republicans (20%-68%).
*16% of Virginians believe that Barack Obama was not born in the United States, with 18% "not sure." Among Republicans, 38% believe he was not born in the US of A, with 31% "not sure." My god.
*At 63%-26% favorable (+37 points), Mark Warner remains the most popular incumbent politician in Virginia. Next is Jim Webb at 53%-39% favorable (+14 points), followed by Tim Kaine at 45%-43% (+2 points). Barack Obama is currently at 45%-48% favorable (-3 points) in Virginia.
*Bob McDonnell has a net favorable rating of +16 points (56%-40%), compared to +5 points (47%-42%) for Creigh Deeds.
*The top-line numbers for Deeds and McDonnell are basically unchanged compared to the last Research 2000 poll, conducted 8/3-8/5. That's contrary to Rasmussen, which shows the race tightening significantly, but similar to SurveyUSA, which doesn't. Who the heck knows...
P.S. Thanks to Markos for the "heads up" on this poll, and also for conducting it!
Blue Virginia
