Another day, yet another new poll (this one by the Washington Post) in the Virginia governor's race. Here are the main findings:*74% of registered voters say they are "certain to vote" or "probably will vote". This compares to 86% "certain" or "probably" at the same point in 2005. Given that turnout in 2005 ended up being only 45%, it's likely that turnout this time around will be under 45%, possibly even lower than 40% (if you do the math, 74%/86%*45%=38.7%).
*Actually, more likely voters this year say they're following the governor's race "closely" (84%) than at the same point in 2005 (73%). This would tend to imply higher turnout this year than in 2005, contradicting the first point I just made. Who knows, in other words...
*Top issues among likely voters are: 1) economy/jobs/unemployment (27%), 2) education (10%), 3) health care (9%), 4) taxes (9%) and 5) transportation (7%).
*Bob McDonnell leads Creigh Deeds among likely voters by just 4 points (51%-47%), a dramatic shift from the August 14 Washington Post poll, when McDonnell led Deeds by 15 points (54%-39%).
*So...among the 5 polls that came out in the last week, we now have 1 (Research 2000/Daily Kos) showing the race as stable, 2 (Rasmussen and Washington Post) showing it tightening fast, and 1 (Clarus) having no trend lines but showing a close race (42%-37% McDonnell). In other words, 3 out of 4 polls released in the last week show the race within 5 points, very close to the "margin of error."
*There's still an "enthusiasm" gap for McDonnell over Deeds, but not terribly large at 89%-82% (of supporters saying they are "enthusiastic" about their candidate). Still more work to do here for Deeds, though...
*Deeds and McDonnell are almost exact mirror images in terms being seen as "too liberal" (42% say that about Deeds) or "too conservative" (40% say that about McDonnell). The two are tied at 47% among people who say they are "just about right" for them on most issues. That's about the same "just about right" figure as four years ago in the Kaine-Kilgore race.
*Deeds is seen by slightly more people as doing a better job on social issues like abortion, health care, and "issues of special concern to women," while McDonnell is seen as better on "the economy and jobs," transportation, taxes, the budget and gun control. Perhaps it's time for the Deeds campaign to come out with a more detailed transportation plan, as well as a plan to balance the budget? (the problem, of course, is that a lot of people want problems like transportation to be solved without raising revenues, even though that's obviously not possible unless you believe in purple unicorns)
*By a 30%-11% margin, likely voters say that McDonnell's theocratic thesis will make them less likely to vote for him. However, most (58%) say it will have no effect at all.
*Among likely voters, this is clearly a "change" election, with 63% saying they want a "new direction" in Virginia and just 35% saying they want the "same direction."
*Tim Kaine (59%-38%) and Barack Obama (53%-47%) both receive net positive approval ratings.
*Only 12% of Virginians support Bob McDonnell's position that abortion should be illegal in "all cases." 58% of Virginians believe abortion should be legal in "all" or "most" cases.
*The vast majority of Virginians either think that government should have nothing to do with homosexuality (69%) or should treat it as "acceptable" (19%). only 11% agree with Bob McDonnell's thesis that "Government policies should discourage homosexuality."
