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Bad Poll to End the Week: McDonnell 54%-Deeds 42%

Friday, September 4, 2009

Blech.
In statewide elections in Virginia today, two months until votes are counted, Republicans sweep, taking the statehouse away from the Democrats and holding the Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General offices, according to SurveyUSA polling for WDBJ-TV Roanoke and WJLA-TV Washington DC.

For Governor, Republican Bob McDonnell appears undamaged and today defeats Democrat Creigh Deeds. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released five weeks ago, the race has tightened slightly, not dramatically. There is movement to Deeds in the Washington DC suburbs, where a 15-point McDonnell lead has evaporated, but there is no GOP erosion in the rest of the state. There is softening in McDonnell's support among voters age 50+, but that is offset by gains for McDonnell among voters age 35 to 49. Of those who voted for Barack Obama in 2008 and who are judged by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in November 2009, 13% cross-over for McDonnell, twice the number of McCain voters who cross-over for Deeds.
For LG, it's Bolling 52%-Wagner 42%, "largely unchanged" from the last poll. For AG, it's Cuccinelli 54%-Shannon 41%, also "unchanged," with Cuccinelli "at or above 50% in every region of the state."

And yes, this poll was all post-Post story ("1,000 Virginia adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 09/01/09 through 09/03/09"). As I said, "blech."