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UPDATE 7:10 pm: NLS's projected winners are available: Bob McDonnell defeats Creigh Deeds, Bill Bolling defeats Jody Wagner, Ken Cuccinelli defeats Steve Shannon. Not a good night for Virginia Democrats, but even more so, not a good night for the Commonwealth of Virginia. Today, Virginia voters made their decision, and it was a really, really bad one.
UPDATE 7:17 pm: The Washington Post reports on exit poll data. "Economy and jobs" (big surprise) are the top issues, "Majorities in both states say President Obama was not a factor in their choice for governor," "Obama is running above 50 percent approval in both states," and "Most in Virginia say McDonnell's graduate school thesis had no effect on their vote."
UPDATE 7:21 pm: Hotline's Polling Editor Steve Shepard tweets, "VA exit polls: Dems 94-6 Deeds. GOPers 95-5 McDonnell. Indies 60-39% McDonnell."
UPDATE 7:25 pm: Steve Shepard tweets, "Per MSNBC, voters < 30 made up 10% of the VA electorate, compared to 21% in '08. Obama won them, 60-39%. Deeds won them this year, 52-46%."
UPDATE 7:27 pm: Results coming in at SBE. So far, with 4.5% counted, it's McDonnell 65.6%-Deeds 34.4%. Similar for LG and AG.
UPDATE 7:41 pm: With 16.9% of the vote counted, it's now McDonnell 63.5%-Deeds 36.4%. For LG, it's Bolling 61.7%-Wagner 38.2%. For AG, it's Cuccinelli 62.5%-Shannon 37.4%. In the House of Delegates, Dan Bowling looks like he could be in serious trouble, Carole Pratt appears to be losing, as does Jeannete Rishell. With 10% reporting, Luke Torian is trailing Rafael Lopez 55%-45%; this would be a major upset if Lopez beats Torian, but it's still very early. With 10 of 28 precincts reporting in, Tom Shields trails John O'Bannon 67%-33% in the 73rd HoD district. Good news - with 4 of 15 precincts reporting, Robin Abbott leads Phil Hamilton 62%-38%. Mild anxiety inducing news - with 12 of 37 precincts reporting, Al Pollard leads Catherine "Bullet Box" Crabill by just 55%-45%.
UPDATE 7:54 pm: With 26.2% of the vote counted, it's McDonnell 63%-Deeds 37%. LG and AG results are almost identical.
UPDATE 8:07 pm: With 40.5% of the vote counted, it's McDonnell 62%-Deeds 38%, Bolling 60%-Wagner 40%, Cuccinelli 61%-Shannon 39%. In the House of Delegates, Del. Dan Bowling appears to have lost to Will Morefield. Del. Anne Crockett-Stark is easily defeating Carole Pratt, Del. Dave Nutter is easily beating Peggy Frank, Del .Bob Marshall is cruising to victory over John Bell, Del. Danny Marshall is defeating Seward Anderson, Ron Villaneuva is narrowly leading Del. Bobby Mathieson, Del. Shannon Valentine is neck and neck with Scott Garrett, Tag Greason is slightly ahead of Del. Dave Poisson in early returns, Del. Margi Vanderhye is ahead of Barbara Comstock by about 10 points with 10% of precincts reporting, Mark Keam is leading Jim Hyland by about 5 points with 3 of 19 precincts reporting, Del. Ken Plum is actually trailing Mac Cannon with 1 of 15 precincts reporting, Kaye Kory is leading Danny Smith with 3 of 21 precincts reporting, Rich Anderson is leading Del. Paul Nichols by 13 points with 2 of 16 precincts reporting, Rafael Lopez continues to lead Luke Torian with around 1/3 of precincts reporting, Jim LeMunyon and Del. Chuck Caputo are basically tied with 10% of precincts reporting, Del. John O'Bannon appears to be defeating Tom Shields, Chris Stolle is leading Del. Joe Bouchard with just 1 precinct reporting, Del. Tom Rust is narrowly leading Stevens Miller with 3 of 19 precincts reporting, Robin Abbott leads Del. Phil Hamilton by 18 points with 1/3 of precincts reporting, and Del. Albert Pollard leads Catherine "Bullet Box" Crabill by just 5 percentage points with 51% of precincts reporting. Ee gads.
UPDATE 8:40 pm: A few HoD results -- Del. Dan Bowling (D) is unseated by Will Morefield (R) in the 3rd HoD district. Del. Shannon Valentine (D) appears to have held on against Scott Garrett (R). Del. Paul Nichols (D) leads Richard Anderson (R) by 122 votes with half the precincts reporting in the 51st. Rafael Lopez (R) and Luke Torian (D) are basically tied with 10 of 19 precincts reporting in the 52nd. Del. Chuck Caputo (D) is trailing Jim LeMunyon (R) by about 300 votes with 6 of 19 precincts reporting in the 67th. Del. John O'Bannon (R) has defeated Tom Shields (D) easily in the 73rd. Robin Abbott (D) continues to lead Del. Phil Hamilton (R), by about 900 votes, with 11 of 15 precincts reporting. Del Albert Pollard (D) leads Catherine "Bullet Box" Crabill by about 850 votes with 31 of 37 precincts reporting.
UPDATE 8:53 pm: Del. Joe Bouchard (D) has conceded to Chris Stolle (R) in the 83rd district. Major bummer.
UPDATE 8:56 pm: So, it looks like the polls were wrong - as a few diehard Deeds supporters kept claiming the past few weeks - only in that they significantly underestimated how badly Deeds, Wagner and Shannon would lose. Right now, with almost 80% of precincts reporting, McDonnell leads by 22 points (61%-39%), Bolling by about 16 points (58%-42%), and Cuccinelli by 18 points (59%-41%). Total wipeout.
UPDATE 9:08 pm: Two bright notes, my friend Scott Surovell appears to be winning his race for House of Delegates in the 44th, and my friend Brian Patton has been elected Commonwealth's Attorney from Russell County. Congratulations to Scott and Brian, they've both got bright futures ahead of them!
UPDATE 9:50 pm: It looks like Del. Bobby Mathieson may hold on, but we're talking a handful of votes so who knows. Del. Shannon Valentine (D) appears to have lost to Scott Garrett by 203 votes. Tag Greeson (R) has defeated Del. David Poisson (D) by almost 4,000 votes. Del. Paul Nichols (D) appears to have lost to Richard Anderson (R) by about 200 votes. Robin Abbott (D) has defeated Del. Phil Hamilton (R) by over 1,000 votes. Del. Joe Bouchard (D) has conceded to Chris Stolle (R). Del. Chuck Caputo (D) apparently loses to Jim LeMunyon (R). Del. Dave Albo (R) appears to have defeated Greg Werkheiser (D) for the 2nd time. Kaye Kory (D) is beating Danny Smith (R) easily. Luke Torian (D) has defeated Rafael Lopez (R) by 648 votes. Del. Tom Rust (R) appears to have defeated Stevens Miller (D). Del. Albert Pollard (D) leads Catherine "Bullet Box" Crabill by just 721 votes with 35 of 37 precincts reporting. What a nightmare.
UPDATE 10:07 pm: It looks like Del. Margi Vanderhye (D) is going to lose to Barbara Comstock (R). The nightmare worsens.
Blue Virginia
