This article, "Deeds, Moran Take Different Routes in Va. Race," is interesting in general - good work by Tim Craig and Fredrick Kunkle. What I found most intriguing, however, were the following paragraphs:With the primary more than three months away, most political analysts say the nomination is up for grabs. In the coming weeks, however, many expect that one of the contenders will start lagging the others in public opinion polls, momentum and fundraising.
Given his expected money advantage, McAuliffe will almost certainly be a formidable candidate until the end of the primary campaign, said former Virginia governor L. Douglas Wilder (D). Deeds and Moran are trying to guarantee that they will also be viewed as top-tier candidates.
"This is eventually going to be a two-man race," Wilder said.
Since resigning from the House in December, Moran has fought hard to position himself as the natural alternative to McAuliffe.
If Doug Wilder's analysis is correct, and I see no obvious reason why it isn't, what we're talking about is the Democratic gubernatorial nomination coming down to Terry McAuliffe versus EITHER Brian Moran OR Creigh Deeds. In short, one of the "two men" will be Terry McAuliffe, the question is who will be the main alternative?
In terms of how the campaign plays out, Wilder's reasoning should logically lead Moran and Deeds to try and establish themselves as the alternative to McAuliffe. And, by extension, this should logically lead Moran and Deeds to start going after each other aggressively, which to date they have not done at all (in fact, Moran and Deeds appear to be essentially ignoring each other, from what I can tell, while Moran goes after McAuliffe as a "fighter not a fundraiser," etc.).
An alternative scenario is that neither Moran nor Deeds accepts Doug Wilder's analysis that this will come down to a two-man race between McAuliffe and one of the other two. In that scenario, I'd expect Moran to ratchet up the attacks on McAuliffe big time, while Deeds stays positive and hopes the two NOVA heavyweights knock each other out (while he edges them out for the nomination). In other words, more of what we've been seeing so far. If that happens, the big question will be what Tim Kaine, Mark Warner et al. decide to do. Kaine already has made it clear he wants the "right tone" in this race. What will he do if the "tone" turns nasty or negative? No matter what, given the crucial importance of this election to Tim Kaine's legacy, I don't see him keeping quiet while the Democrats rip themselves apart.
