Whoever you're supporting in the Democratic gubernatorial primary, I recommend that you read this article by Bob Holsworth of VCU. I believe that Holsworth's analysis of the Moran vs. McAuliffe dynamics (Holsworth doesn't talk about the Deeds campaign in this article) is spot on. First, the Moran campaign and its "whoever gets the most endorsements wins" approach:Moran has done a fine job over the past two months enlisting the official support of local Democratic officials in a number of the major metropolitan areas that will produce the majority of voters in the June primary...
But endorsements only take you so far.
Given the likely financial disparity he’ll face against McAuliffe, Moran willl need far more than names on letterhead. The local officials who support Moran will have to work for him with a capital W. They’ll have to contact the voters that supported them, convince them that the choice is important and mobilize them in June to get to the polls.
...If each of the Moran Sixteen [endorsers Tuesday] had brought just thirty people to the [Gerry Connolly St. Patrick's Day] straw poll, he would have won.
Exactly right, which is exactly why I thought Brian Moran was the strong favorite to win Rep. Connolly's straw poll on Tuesday. Same thing with Jody Wagner, who actually DID win the straw poll, although not by a huge margin.
As for Terry McAuliffe, Holsworth has this to say:
McAuliffe’s performance at the straw poll illustrated the organizational skill of his campaign. They have resources and know how to use them, in this instance arranging for donors to pay for 400 tickets for his supporters.
McAuliffe and his campaign exult and excel in the “theatre of politics,” more so than any Democrat since Doug Wilder.
But will McAuliffe’s skill at event organizing translate into mobilizing grass-roots voters in the June primary?
Excellent question by Holsworth, which he answers with another question, "whether [McAuliffe] can repeat the feat [of winning the straw poll despite "a significant disadvantage in support from local officials to win the majority of attendees"] in a statewide primary."
The tenor of Holsworth's article indicates that he DOES believe Terry McAuliffe can do that (particularly his comment about McAuliffe's campaign "[h]aving resources and knowing how to use them"), and I agree. In fact, this was one of the reasons I decided to support Terry last fall, because I believed he could and WOULD put together the most impressive grassroots campaign we've ever seen in Virginia, not just for governor but also for LG, AG, and our House of Delegates candidates. I tended to believe him back in September, but now that I observe the campaign team Terry ended up putting together, I feel that my belief has been vindicated. (I also feel that my belief has been vindicated that Brian Moran's campaign was uninspiring, too dependent on endorsements from Brian's former colleagues in the House of Delegates, and overconfident to the point of arrogance).
By the way, for those who want to discount Terry's victory on Tuesday night, I'd point out that Gerry Connolly's straw poll has had an impressive track record since 2006 of predicting the ultimate Democratic primary winners, at least in Fairfax County. Here are just a few people who won both Connolly's straw poll (or the FCDC JJ straw poll in 2008) and the Democratic primary in June: Jim Webb (over Harris Miller), Margi Vanderhye (over Rip Sullivan), Rex Simmons (over Morris Meyer), and George Barker (over Greg Galligan), Jim Moran (over Matt Famiglietti), Judy Feder (over Mike Turner), and Gerry Connolly (over Leslie Byrne, Doug Denneny and Lori Alexander).
P.S. I also recommend Teacherken's excellent Daily Kos diary, including his comments where he deals with...er...passionate anti-McAuliffe people.
