Gerry Connolly's 15th Annual St. Patrick's Day Fete and Straw Poll is tomorrow evening, and as usual the straw poll results will be eagerly awaited. Here are the results from recent years' straw polls.2006
11th Congressional District
Ken Longmyer 53%
Andy Hurst 47%
US Senate
James Webb 58%
Harris Miller 42%
Against "Marriage" Amendment 90%
For "Marriage" Amendment 10%
2007
34th House of Delegates District
Margi Vanderhye: 19 votes
Rip Sullivan: 12 votes
40th House of Delegates District
Rex Simmons: 19 votes
Morris Meyer: 6 votes
39th Senate District
George Barker: 51 votes
Greg Galligan: 5 votes
2008 (FCDC JJ Dinner straw poll)
8th Congressional District
Jim Moran: 42 votes
Matt Famiglietti: 4 votes
10th Congressional District
Judy Feder: 65 votes
Mike Turner: 7 votes
11th Congressional District
Gerry Connolly: 57%
Leslie Byrne: 34%
Doug Denneny: 7%
Lori Alexander: 1%
Those results were accurate in almost every case for Democrats in Fairfax County. The major exception was Ken Longmyer edging out Andy Hurst, but that one was really close (Hurst went on to win the nomination and lose to Tom Davis in the general election). Also, Mike Turner did better in the Fairfax County portion of the 10th CD primary than his results at the JJ Dinner would have indicated. The point is, this poll is a pretty big deal, as it gets a large number of votes and seems to be a pretty good predictor. So, what about this year?
Heading into tomorrow evening's event, here's where I think we stand.
1. Attorney General
There's only one Democratic candidate, Steve Shannon. Fearless prediction: Steve will win the straw poll! :)
2. Lieutenant Governor
Jody Wagner has been endorsed by Fairfax elected's and DPVA committee members like Sen. Dick Saslaw, Del. Margi Vanderhye, Fairfax City Councilor Dan Drummond, County Board Chairman Sharon Bulova (and supervisors Cathy Hudgins, Gerry Hyland, Penny Gross and Jeff McKay), DPVA steering committee members Pixie Bell, George Burke and Rachel Rifkind. No other candidate is even close in terms of endorsements, indicating that Jody Wagner should win this poll by a wide margin. Second place should go to Jon Bowerbank, who's been endorsed by Leslie Byrne and Chap Petersen. After that, I'd guess that Mike Signer will finish third and Pat Edmonson fourth.
3. Governor
So far, Brian Moran's campaign hasn't announced any Fairfax County endorsements (interesting, since they've got lots of endorsements listed on their website from the surrounding counties of Arlington, Loudoun and Prince William) except for 11th CD chair George Burke (the 11th CD covers parts of Prince William and Fairfax Counties). However, the Moran campaign has issued a press release indicating that they "Fairfax Democratic leaders will unite behind Brian Moran’s campaign for Governor" tomorrow morning. This appears to be - obviously and intelligently - timed for the straw poll later that day. Another point worth noting is that Jim Moran's 8th Congressional District takes in part of Fairfax County.
Terry McAuliffe is from Fairfax County (McLean) but also - as of this moment, to the best of my knowledge - has not announced any Fairfax endorsements except for Bruce Neilson (Treasurer, Fairfax County Dem. Committee) and Carrie Nixon (co-chair of Providence District Democratic Committee).
Finally, Creigh Deeds is not from northern Virginia but has been endorsed by several leading figures from Fairfax County -- Sen. Chap Petersen, Commonwealth's Attorney Ray Morrogh, former Commonwealth's Attorney Bob Horan.
The bottom line here is that Brian Moran has strong ties to Fairfax, both on his own merits and also through his brother, Rep. Jim Moran, and will likely pick up a slew of endorsements tomorrow morning. My prediction is that Brian Moran will win Gerry Connolly's straw poll tomorrow night, followed by Creigh and Terry in a close race for second and third. But who knows what will happen after people have a few green beers in them! :)
