In today's paper, the Washington Post describes the conundrum facing Virginia Republicans in the Jeff Frederick situation.Mr. Frederick's backers include many of the party activists who stuff envelopes, put out yard signs and knock on doors. These core members are crucial to running a campaign, but their views on issues such as gun rights and abortion offend many of the moderate voters who decide statewide elections.In other words, the very people who are the beating heart and soul of Virginia's Republican Party - who do the hard work, stuff the envelopes, knock on the doors, make the phone calls, etc. - are also, according to the Washington Post, putting the Republicans at risk of "becoming the permanent minority" in Virginia. How do Virginia Republicans square this circle? If they oust Jeff Frederick on April 4, won't that simply cause many of their most loyal activists (social and religious conservatives) to become disenchanted and demoralized? And if these loyal, passionate Republicans stay home instead of volunteering and voting, are there enough fired-up Republican "pragmatists" to make up for the social conservatives' absence?
Think of it this way; what would have happened back in 2005 or 2006 if "centrist" and "conservative" Democrats had gotten together and ousted Howard Dean as Democratic Party chair? What would the reaction by progressive Democrats have been? Would this have caused a permanent rift in the party? Would progressive Democrats have turned out to phone bank, canvass, and donate to Barack Obama in 2008? Would Democrats have done better or worse than they actually did in November 2008? My answers to these questions: progressives would have been livid and Democrats would have done worse than they actually did in November 2008.
In short, what Virginia Republicans have right now is a highly consequential choice for their party, whether - as the saying goes - to "dance with the ones that brung 'em" (the social conservatives) or to ditch their old partner(s) for a pretty new "pragmatist," or at least one (like Bob McDonnell) who PRETENDS to be a "pragmatist." In the end, my guess is that Jeff Frederick will survive the vote on April 4, probably by a razor-thin margin. However, if Frederick doesn't survive, and if Virginia Republicans attempt to "put lipstick on a pig" by dressing up as "pragmatists" (led by a Pat Robertson Republican like Bob McDonnell, no less), we'll see if anyone buys what they're selling. I have my doubts, and something tells me that core conservative activists will as well.
UPDATE: The Richmond Times-Dispatch has some thoughts on this topic as well, arguing strongly that it's all about the independents here in Virginia, and that the way to win those independents is not with "punch-in-the-face partisanship" as practiced by Jeff Frederick.
