Thanks to James Martin for the following forecast on key House of Delegates races.Count me as an optimist, Democrats pick off 2-3 Republicans and Republicans pick up 6 for a likely net Republican gain of 3-4 seats.
Virginia Beach
Bobby Mathieson (D) has outspent his opponent nearly 2-1 and this is the most Democratic district in Virginia Beach. I think Mathieson will survive barring a massive wave.
Del. Joe Bouchard (D) has been a great Delegate, and this is about as split a district as they come (Obama/Allen/Kaine), however the race has been flooded with national Republican money and given that the district will certainly go strongly for Bob McDonnell. I don't expect Bouchard to survive.
Hampton Roads
Robin Abbott (D) should pull off a win against soon to be indicted Delegate Phil Hamilton (R). This is a Democratic district to start with and the hint of corruption should seal the deal, but Hamilton is a known commodity and could pull off an upset with his incredable campaign warchest.
Northern Virginia
Del. Bob Brink (D), Patrick Hope (D), Kaye Kory (D): If Kaye, Bob, or Patrick loses, then the only Democrats left in the General Assembly will be those who were unopposed this time around. These districts are certainly staying in the Democratic column.
Scott Surovell (D) and Mark Keam (D): Both have run outstanding races and heavily outspend their opponents in heavily Democratic districts. A loss in either of these races is highly unlikely.
Del. Chuck Caputo (D) and Del. Margi Vanderhye (D): Both are in the toughest and tightest races in the state. Bob McDonnell will win both districts, so it's simply a question if they can hold on. Unfortunately, both of their opponents have worked the heck out of these districts and I think it's unlikely that more than one will survive. My gut feeling is Vanderhye will most likely lose and Caputo is a slight underdog in his race.
Del. Bob Marshall (R) will sail easily to another 2 year term.
Greg Werkheiser (D): I actually think Werkheiser should be a slight favorite tonight. If it wasn't for the statewide environment, Werkheiser would certainly win. I think he's run an excellent race in what is a Democratic district.
Luke Torian (D) should pick up the seat of Del. Jeff Frederick (R) by a pretty comfortable margin. Even with the negative headwinds, this race has been decided since Day 1.
Stevens Miller (D): Sorry guys, but Delegate Tom Rust (R) will get another 2 years.
Del. David Poisson (D) almost lost to nobody 2 years ago (his opponent had a banner on his website saying "endorsed by leaders!"- what does that mean?), this time around I think he's in trouble.
Del. Paul Nichols (D) stands only a slightly better chance of winning than his Prince William colleague Jeanette Rishell. Unfortunately for Nichols, Rishell would be lucky to get 40%.
Central VA
Del Shannon Valentine (D) is easily my favorite member of the House. She's a great fundraiser and a great Delegate, but unfortunately Liberty University is located in her district. Valentine's survival is based almost entirely on turnout there. I hope she wins re-election, but I have trouble seeing how it will work out.
Southside
Seward Anderson (D) would have won 2 years ago against Del. Danny Marshall (R), but this year he doesnt stand much of a chance.
Southwest Virginia
Count me as the only person who thinks Del. Dan Bowling (D) will survive. He's gotten his act together in the last month and this is one of the most Democratic districts in SWVA (with a Democratic Performance Index of over 50). If he does lose, it won't be because of voter fatigue, it will be because he got lazy and let his opponent build up a credible campaign completly unchallenged.
Delegate Crockett-Stark (R) should dispatch Carole Pratt (D) with ease. If Pratt pulls close or even wins, it's because Crockett-Stark has the same problem as Dan Bowling: Laziness.
In any other year, Dave Nutter (R) would have a serious challenge. This year, he is the prohibitive favorite.
