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Two New Governor Polls and It's Anyone's Ballgame

Thursday, June 4, 2009

The Washington Post reports on two new polls of the Virginia governor's race, both indicating volatility and lots of undecided voters. Suffolk University has it as Deeds 29%, McAuliffe 26%, Moran 23%. Research 2000 has it as Deeds 30%, Moran 27%, McAuliffe 26%.

How to make sense of this? Good question. One possibility is to look at Pollster.com, which gives an average over multiple polls of Deeds 29%, McAuliffe 26%, Moran 24%. Another is to consider momentum, which currently appears to be favoring Deeds. One could also look at the "get out the vote" operations for all three campaigns, try to figure out what turnout will be (200,000? 300,000? more?) and from which parts of the Commonwealth? If anyone can figure all that out, I think they missed their calling in life and should have been high-paid pollsters and/or political consultants. LOL. Bottom line: who the heck knows?