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Iran: "Frustration," "Despair," and "Off the Mark" Intel

Sunday, June 28, 2009

In just over two weeks, the situation in Iran has gone from anger to hope to tragedy to "frustration" and "despair".
Even in areas of [Tehran] not known for liberal politics, the sense of frustration, and despair, was palpable. Those who accuse the government of stealing the election said they had lost the hope for change they had during the protests that drew tens of thousands of people into Tehran’s streets. But others also confessed to feeling depressed.

[...]

There were further signs on Saturday that the opposition was running out of options in its attempts to nullify the re-election of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, which has been confirmed by the country’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

The Expediency Council, headed by former President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, issued a statement that called the supreme leader’s decision the final word on the election, although it did say the government should investigate voting complaints “properly and thoroughly.”

Mr. Rafsanjani has been one of Mr. Ahmadinejad’s strongest critics and one of the most ardent supporters of Mir Hussein Moussavi, Mr. Ahmadinejad’s chief rival in the election. But after the vote, the former president had been quiet, and many Iranians had hoped he would broker some compromise behind the scenes.
In other words, it looks like Iran's pro-Democracy reformers have been crushed, at least for now. Meanwhile, Holocaust Denier/All-Around Madman Mahmoud Ahmedinejad demands an apology from Barack Obama for condemning Ahmedinjad's brutal crackdown (including the cold-blooded murder of Neda Agha Soltan by his goons), and Obama basically tells him to go pound sand. So much for U.S. diplomacy with Ahmedinejad's regime? The prospect sure aren't looking great at the moment.

Finally, this report in Newsweek caught my eye:
President Obama's cautious response to election results in Iran may be partly explained by the fact that U.S. intelligence agencies were off the mark in assessments they gave the White House and lawmakers. Five officials familiar with intel reporting and analysis, who asked for anonymity to discuss sensitive material, say most experts at the CIA and other intel agencies initially believed Mahmoud Ahmadinejad won reelection solidly—and that if there was fraud, it was at the margins.
So, let's see, the same CIA which said the Soviet Union would last forever, which completely missed the Iranian Revolution back in 1978, which told George W. Bush that the existence of WMD in Iraq was a "slam dunk case," and which almost totally screwed up prior to 9/11 ("failures to implement and manage important processes, to follow through with operations, and to properly share and analyze critical data"), was "off the mark" once again? I'm shocked, SHOCKED I tell you!