I just received a copy of new polling, by Anzalone Liszt Research for the Democratic Governor's Association, of the Virginia governor's race. The poll was conducted June 10-14, and surveyed 600 "likely 2009 Virginia general election voters." Here are the highlights.1. Creigh Deeds holds a 4-point lead (42%-38%) over Bob McDonnell.
2. Deeds leads McDonnell 51%-29% in Southwest Virginia.
3. "In spite of a substantial investment in the Washington, D.C. media market, McDonnell’s popularity among white voters in suburban Northern Virginia is just 36% favorable / 30% unfavorable."
4. Deeds overall favorable/unfavorable rating is 48%/14% (+34 points), 10 points higher than McDonnell's 43%/19% (+24 points) rating.
5. Deeds' favorable/unfavorable rating among independent voters is 50%/9% (+41 point), compared to McDonnell's 35%/18% (+17 points).
6. "By a 2:1 margin, Virginia voters think the state is moving in the right direction (53% right / 26% wrong) and Governor Kaine receives a 66% favorable rating."
7. "By a 14-point margin, voters think Creigh Deeds would do a better job “fighting for the middle class” than Bob McDonnell (42% Deeds / 28% McDonnell)."
8. Finally, "Deeds leads 39% to 26% on 'working with the other political party.'"
The memo also notes that even though McDonnell has "spent nearly two million dollars on early paid communications," Deeds is viewed more favorably and also "holds critical issue advantages that will make it difficult for McDonnell to make up ground." Great news.
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Wow, those sub-questions are huge for Deeds, his support has some real depth to it. And let's see where McDonnell's favorable/unfavorable ratings stand after we've spent the summer telling voters how McDonnell is anti-worker, anti-environment, and has no position on health care.
ReplyDeleteInteresting in light of the Rasmussen poll. Probably a more accurate read given that it gave the dust from Creigh's big primary win a chance to settle. A couple more of these polls and McDonnell might feel that he has to roll out a "big idea"--i.e. no parole, no car tax -- to win. BTW, has anyone discussed the notion that Virginia has been blue for a while at the gubernatorial level. Five of the last seven governor's have been Democrats. Only Allen and Gilmore, with the aid of their "big ideas," have broken that through.
ReplyDeletei'm trying to remember how far "behind" Deeds was against McDonnell when it was a 3-way primary race. Was it about 4% ? If so that kinda, sorta means a 14% turnaround now that, you know, Creigh's win seems to have resulted in something we haven't seen for a long time: nearly total party unity, caused by none other than the VOTERS, with a lot of help from WaPo and Creigh's amazing campaign mgr.
ReplyDeleteI eagerly await the next McD vs. Mr. D poll.
More and more excited and energized Boots on the Ground grassroots volunteers and convinced voters.
Go Team Deeds and Big Blue Team !!
T.C.
Steve: I don't think our country or our commonwealth can stand any more Republican "big ideas."
ReplyDeleteIs there a link to the poll? I'm interested in the Cross-Tabs.
ReplyDeleteLowell: Well I didn't say they were good ideas.
ReplyDeleteBut Allen and Gilmore did identify issues that moved voters, even if their policy solutions were expensive and heavy-handed. Virginia Republicans don't do nuance
Bigvinu: No, it was emailed around to reporters, bloggers, etc., I don't believe it's online anywhere.
ReplyDelete"Virginia Republicans don't do nuance."
ReplyDeleteHahaha, no they sure don't! :)
Lowell,
ReplyDeleteJust found it: http://www.pollster.com/ALiszt-VAGOV-090614.pdf
OOPS ! My math wasn't right on the "14% turnaround". That should have been "8% turnaround".
ReplyDeleteIn the meantime, I went back to the most recent survey just before the primary and it was showing that in a head-to-head between Deeds and McDonnell, McDonnell was winning by 5% points, with 17% undecided. So, if I got the math right this time there was a 9% turnaround.
I didn't find anything in this most recent 42%/38% poll about undecided percentage, so I'll have to assume that the undecided would be either about the same (17%) or, possibly a little better given the decided party unity advantage that Deeds now has.
Comments ?
More favorable coverage of Deeds -- very important in the next few months as most Virginians are only now getting to know him.
ReplyDeleteSo if BMac has 36/30 favorables with NoVA whites, what are Deeds' favorables with NoVA whites? Why isn't that released?
ReplyDeleteI hate these private polls with data cherry-picked for the press release. I understand why they do it, and I can't argue with it, since it's one of the millions of small tactics toward winning the election.
But myself, I look for useful realstic and complete data in polling, and these types of things don't provide enough.
I'll give the pollster credit for releasing more numbers than many do, and for showing very believable toplines. This certainly corresponds with Rasmussen, and it's more realistic since Rasmussen's relatively low undecideds are unrealistic at this early stage.