1. I agree with Holsworth that "Timing is Everything," and that "[o]n Tuesday, the Deeds campaign will be crossing its fingers and hoping that in 2009 it didn’t surge a day too early."
2. I also agree with Holsworth that "if McAuliffe wins on Tuesday, it’ll be the stuff you don’t see that will do it." In particular, Holsworth (and I) will be looking at how McAuliffe's field operation performs, whether it really "has done an excellent job in identifying and communicating with its voters," and whether "it will be able to get them to the polls on Tuesday." Finally, what about Brian Moran's self-professed "grassroots" campaign; to what extent does it exist and will it spring into action Tuesday? We'll find out soon enough.
3. Holsworth mentions Bobby Scott's support. I'd broaden this out to the question of how many African Americans will turn out to vote on Tuesday. If the answer is "very few," Terry McAuliffe - who is popular among African Americans and who has been endorsed by African American ministers, newspapers, etc. - will have a difficult time winning. If the answer is "a lot," McAuliffe will have an excellent shot. Keep an eye on African American turnout Tuesday.
4. Holsworth raises the issue of Republicans possibly voting in the Democratic primary in order to get the nominee they consider easiest for Bob McDonnell to defeat in November. Personally, I doubt there will be many of these votes, or that they'll be focused on any one candidate. If there is an organized, focused "Operation Chaos" phenomenon on Tuesday, however, that could make a difference in a close race. You might want to keep an eye out for signs of that.
5. What will overall turnout be, and how will it be distributed regionally? Nobody really knows, but that could make a major difference on Tuesday. High turnout in rural parts of Virginia, for instance, might help Creigh Deeds. High turnout in the African American community, as mentioned above, would almost certainly help Terry McAuliffe. High turnout in Alexandria and Arlington could help Brian Moran.
6. How many voters will show up at the polls still not really decided on their pick for governor? If so, how will they make up their minds? Will campaigns' poll coverage make a difference on Tuesday?
7. In the LG race, Jody Wagner remains the favorite but could Mike Signer's late mailings and other publicity help give him a boost on Tuesday?
8. In the 47th House of Delegates race, I'm looking closely at turnout. If it's really high, I think that will tend to hurt the "establishment" candidate, or whoever is perceived as the "establishment" candidate. In this race, that appears to be Patrick Hope. Will Mark Warner's endorsement of Alan Howze make a difference here? Will the strong grassroots campaign of Miles Grant - who I support - push him over the top to victory? Will Adam Parkhomenko's endorsements by national figures like Bill Clinton and Wes Clark influence 47th District voters to choose him or will those endorsements have little effect? Will many Latinos turn out to vote, undoubtedly helping Andres Tobar, who has emphasized the "historic" nature of his candidacy (although, actually, Jeff Frederick's mother is from Colombia, making Frederick the first Latino elected the Virginia General Assembly)?
9. How early will NLS "call it" in the various races? Ben's really good at this stuff, is almost never wrong, and I'll certainly be listening to what he has to say.
10. The weather. Right now, it looks like it will be hot with scattered showers, mainly in the late afternoon. Overall, the weather sounds to me like it won't be a negative factor in the sense of holding down turnout. But could nasty, late-afternoon thunderstorms in certain areas of Virginia make a difference? It's possible, and something to keep an eye on.
11. Other? What will you be looking for on Tuesday?
