The single biggest thing by far to happen to the demographics of the Virginia electorate between Tim Kaine's election and Bob McDonnell's election was the Obama Presidential election in Virginia in 2008, the approximately 500,000 new voters it added to the voter rolls in Virginia, and the issues and themes that inspired Virginia voters to give Obama such a decisive win.
For any Democrat running for Governor in 2009, to have not had a coherent and compelling strategy from the start to motivate these “Obama voters” to vote for that Democrat is nothing short of breathtaking. Your analysis has controlled for the traditional drop off to be expected between a Presidential and a Gubernatorial year in Virginia, so no refuge can be found in excuses framed around "there's always a drop-off".
I was repeatedly assured that the Deeds and Coordinated Campaigns understood that they needed to get a sufficient number of these Obama voters to win, but I was never able to determine what the strategy was to inspire them to do so. What were the positive reasons unique to this group of voters that would lead them to vote for Deeds?
Compounding the problem of not having a strategy to attract these Obama voters, Deeds personally made several statements which turned them away from his candidacy. The two most glaring were his refusal to say he was an Obama Democrat and his refusal to rule out the possibility of backing Virginia’s opting out of a public option program for health care in the event that Congress passed legislation with an opt-out provision.
Finally, there was too much confusion surrounding what role the Organizing for America organization (OFA) would be allowed to play in the Deeds for Governor Campaign. This sent mixed messages to Virginia’s Obama voters—with whom OFA had direct contact and credibility—regarding what Obama thought of Deeds. If a consistent, coordinated, and positive message had been sent to them from June to November, that would have helped.
