With Iran's presidential election due to start in a few hours, Stratfor Global Intelligence (subscription required) has an article entitled "Iran: Is Khamenei Turning Away From Ahmadinejad?" The gist of it is that Khamenei may have "backed away from his preference that the president [Ahmedinejad] serves a second term" by appointing "one of [Khamenei's] advisers, Hojatoleslam Ali Akbar Nategh Nouri, as a supervisor to oversee the voting process." Here's an excerpt:...The last thing [Khamenei] wants is for the vote to be in gridlock; such a development would create instability in the wake of the elections, especially with paranoia within the regime about a color revolution brewing amid the very high level of public mobilization.Keep an eye on Iran the next few days, as this looks volatile. My main question, if Mousavi defeats Ahmendinejad as expected, is whether hard-liners actually allow the results to stand. And, if not, then what? Will there really be a "color revolution" (like in Ukraine, Georgia, etc.) in Iran? If so, would there be be a violent counterrevolution by the Revolutionary Guards, etc? Stay tuned...
Considering Ahmadinejad’s chances in the election — a recent Newsweek article said intelligence reports provided to the Iranian government show the president could lose to his main challenger, former Prime Minister Mir Hossein Mousavi, by several million votes — it seems that Khamenei is trying to get rid of the incumbent through constitutional means by ensuring that the voting is largely free and fair. However, Ahmadinejad maintains considerable support among state institutions dominated by hard-liners such as the Interior Ministry, Guardians Council, Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps and Baseej, and his supporters within the clerical community are also mobilizing in the election.
Thus, while the outcome remains uncertain, this election is turning into a major showdown between the rival conservative factions that dominate the Iranian political establishment.
UPDATE: On a humorous note, check this out.
