As the Democratic gubernatorial primary winds to its (merciful?) close, it looks like any of the three candidates have paths to victory, although two - Terry McAuliffe and Creigh Deeds - seem to be have clearer paths than the other one - Brian Moran (who trails in the Pollster.com average). Over at CNN's "Political Ticker", Peter Hamby discusses the three candidates' strategies and appears to agree with Bob Holsworth that "the African-American vote will be the decisive factor in this race." The three paths to victory, according to the "Political Ticker," are:1. Creigh Deeds: "Deeds' path to victory relies on a broad coalition of supporters not just from northern Virginia, Richmond and in the urban areas along the coast, but also from Deeds’ base of support in rural and small-town Virginia." Also, "If turnout is mediocre across the board, he said, Deeds may escape with a come-from-behind win with support from undecided voters."
2. Terry Mcauliffe: "McAuliffe, a newcomer to Virginia politics and a resident of populous Fairfax County, is gambling on a different strategy – 'expanding the electorate,' particularly among the African-American voters who rallied to Barack Obama’s campaign last year."
3. Brian Moran: "If turnout in northern Virginia is extraordinarily high, [Quentin Kidd of Christopher Newport University] predicted a Moran win."
In the end, the article concludes that it's actually even simpler than that: if African Americans come out to vote on Tuesday in large numbers, "former Democratic National Committee chairman Terry McAuliffe could very well be the beneficiary and move on to face Republican Bob McDonnell in the general election." If, instead, they stay home, "McAuliffe’s lively and unconventional bid for the governorship might come to an end." We'll know the answer in just 6 days.
P.S. Personally, I hope for the sake of Democracy and not embarrassing ourselves with pathetic turnout, that as many people as possible - blacks and whites, men and women, people from all parts of the Commonwealth - come out to vote in this election and in every election.
