We conducted a poll over the last three nights - with 200 interviews a night. We never base decisions on one night's worth of interviews because the sample is too small. But throughout this campaign our night-by-night numbers have been reliable and have picked up trends such as the recent increase in support for Deeds. I am encouraged that last night's interviews have us tied with Deeds.
While this is not definitive, last night's trend shows this is a competitive race and we need to make sure that every vote counts and we need to make every effort to turn out our voters today.
Mark my words: we can win this thing tonight. There are three key things to take away from our polling research.
First, people want someone who shares their values on gun safety issues. Terry McAuliffe opposes allowing concealed weapons into bars and supports former Governor Dough Wilder's one-gun-per-month law. That message is resonating with this electorate.
Second, people want a candidate who can win. Brian Moran's numbers are flat. He's not within striking distance, and doesn't show any signs of upward movement. If voters want a candidate who can beat Bob McDonnell in November, Terry McAuliffe is the guy to do it.
Third, this race is remarkably fluid, and our field operation is making the difference. We've been polling for three nights, and based on our interviews last night, we're going to close the gap. Public Policy Polling's Tom Jensen noted on Sunday that, "Voter preferences in this election are about as fluid as in any race PPP has ever polled… Usually voter preferences are pretty hardened by 48-72 hours before an election but if there was ever one where that could change this would be it."
It's true that there was serious momentum toward Deeds at the end of last week - and over three days, he has the lead. But we have every indication that voters have moved towards Terry at lightning speed within the last 48 hours, and that's thanks to your work. Staff and volunteers have made a combined 472,801 calls from Saturday through Monday. That doesn't count anything we've already done today.
We've got the momentum. But we need to keep it up. Tell your friends, family and neighbors to get to the polls. And come down to your local field office to make some calls in these final hours.
Click here to find your local field office.
If we keep the pedal to the metal until the polls close at 7 PM tonight, we will win this thing!
Senior Campaign Strategist
Tuesday, June 9, 2009
I just received this from the McAuliffe campaign. As I said yesterday, the only poll that matters is on election day. To use another cliche, "it ain't over 'til the fat lady sings," and I'm not hearing a peep yet. :) Go Terry!
McAuliffe Monday Night Internals: 33%-33%-21%Tweet this! Posted by Lowell at 1:44 PM