Over at Real Clear Politics, UVA Professor Larry Sabato has an analysis that's worth reading on the 2009 Virginia gubernatorial race. A few key points.1. Regarding Creigh Deeds' landslide victory over Brian Moran and Terry McAuliffe in the Democratic primary, Sabato writes: "Trailing Candidate B (Moran) went negative on the leading but flawed Candidate A (McAuliffe), reinforcing doubts about A but also generating a backlash to B. An opening was thus created for little known Candidate C (state Sen. Creigh Deeds), who became the second, acceptable choice of both McAuliffe and Moran supporters." This "murder-suicide" (think Iowa 2004) theory is quickly becoming the conventional wisdom of the 2009 Virginia Democratic gubernatorial primary, and I see no reason in this case to buck conventional wisdom.
2. In addition, there's the Washington Post endorsement of Creigh Deeds, which "legitimized a vote for Deeds among the 35-40% of likely primary voters who resided in NoVa." The Post endorsement of Deeds was also unexpected and - according to Sabato - highly influential on "the high-information voters likely to vote in a Democratic primary." I partly agree with that latter point; the problem with this theory is that it hasn't always worked in the past, whether in primaries for governor, House of Delegates or some other office. For instance, in 2005, the Post totally dissed David Englin and instead went with two more experienced candidates (Libby Garvey, Jim Lay) in the 45th House of Delegates primary race. Englin won. And in 2006, of course, the Post went with Harris Miller over Jim Webb, yet Webb won (with his margin coming overwhelmingly in the Post's core NOVA readership area - Arlington, Alexandria, Fairfax). So, I guess the lesson here is that the Post's endorsement usually doesn't matter, but once in a while - probably in the case of Creigh Deeds - it actually might.
3. As for the general election, Sabato believes that Deeds "is ideologically well positioned for the campaign" as a "moderate Democrat overall, with a conservative position on the Second Amendment," and with the advantage that "Virginians appear to be perfectly satisfied with the Warner-Kaine style of governance, and the burden is on McDonnell to show why a change is needed." I agree that Mark Warner and Tim Kaine will both be extraordinarily helpful to Creigh Deeds this year, as will (most likely) Barack Obama and Joe Biden.
4. I'd also echo Sabato's point that Bob McDonnell appears to have no comparable "surrogate" for his own campaign. I mean, who's he going to get to campaign for him that will be helpful among independent voters, Sarah Palin? Newt Gingrich? Sean Hannity? Jim "Drove Virginia Off the Cliff" Gilmore? George "Macaca" Allen? Dick "Darth Vader" Cheney? Dubya? Nope, it looks like McDonnell's going to have to win this one on his own if he's going to win it.
5. Given that "Deeds lost in 2005 in part because he trailed Tim Kaine in heavily African-American precincts by a little over 3 percentage points," motivating a strong African American vote will be crucial this time around. That's where Barack Obama comes in. Maybe Bill Clinton as well.
6. Sabato believes that "one or two" issues will "come to dominate the campaign agenda, and the skill with which the candidates present their platforms can swing an election." Which issue will that be, it's hard to say. Will it be a major one like the economy and jobs, as the McAuliffe campaign believed? What about energy and the environment (and gay marriage) as the Moran campaign thought? Personally, I think the former is more likely than the latter, but it's also possible that an issue like transportation could leap to the forefront.
Here are three more things to consider as we head into campaign '09. First, how negative will Republicans go against Creigh Deeds? Dick Wad(hams) nasty? Chris "Swift Boat Veterans" LaCivita nasty? Scott "Black Hands" Howell nasty? We'll see. Second, how motivated will Democratic and Republican voters, respectively, be in this "off-off-off year election" with Democrats in control of the White House and Congress? Finally, to what extent will this election be fought out in the "urban triangle" of Hampton Roads/Richmond/NOVA (Tim Kaine and Jim Webb) versus a more rurally focused campaign (Mark Warner 2001)? My bets are heavily on the "urban triangle" option, especially given that Creigh Deeds has moved his campaign HQ to Alexandria. So, expect to hear a lot about transportation in coming months, and possibly also about Bob McDonnell's social conservatism on abortion, stem cells, gay rights, etc.
Anything else you'd add?
UPDATE: Speaking of Larry Sabato, check this out.
