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Iran: "The stage is now set for a major confrontation"

Friday, June 19, 2009

Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, spoke during Friday prayers in Tehran, and the message is not pretty.
In his first public response to days of mass protests, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, sternly warned opposition supporters on Friday to stay off the streets and raised the prospect of violence if the defiant, vast demonstrations continued.

Opposition leaders, he said, will be “responsible for bloodshed and chaos” if they do not call stop further rallies.

He said he would never give in to “illegal pressures” and denied their accusations that last week’s presidential election was rigged, praising the officially declared landslide for the incumbent, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, as an “epic moment that became a historic moment..."
Stratfor (subscription only) has analysis of Khamenei's speech, concluding that he has "clearly opted for the forcible suppression of the uprising," most likely by the Revolutionary Guards. In the end, according to Stratfor, "The stage is now set for a major confrontation, but it is unclear who will emerge victorious." Now, we'll see if millions of peaceful Iranians who want democracy and reform can defeat thousands of entrenched mullahs and well-armed hardliners. Are we heading for an Iran version of Tiananmen Square, or does this mark the beginning of the end for the system set up by Ayatollah Khomeini back in 1979? Stay tuned.