The US Energy Information Administration is out with its new International Energy Outlook, which provides forecasts of international energy markets through 2030. I've just started reading it, but so far I've seen two projections that probably won't make many people happy.
1. "World carbon dioxide emissions are projected to rise from 29.0 billion metric tons in 2006 to 33.1 billion metric tons in 2015 and 40.4 billion metric tons in 2030—an increase of 39 percent over the projection period."
2. "As the world’s economies recover, world oil prices are assumed to rebound and rise in real terms through 2030. In the IEO2009 reference case, the price of light sweet crude oil in the United States (in real 2007 dollars) rises from $61 per barrel in 2009 to $110 per barrel in 2015 and $130 per barrel in 2030."
That's right, we're looking at 20+ years of rising CO2 emissions (as consumption of coal and other fossil fuels continues to grow) and higher oil prices (as demand rebounds along with economic growth). Great stuff, huh? So much for stopping disastrous climate change or continued dependence on expensive oil from countries that aren't our friends (let alone Democracies)? We'll see, but unless the world as a whole takes strong action to change this situation, I see no major reason to doubt it.
