I just got back from the Fairfax County Democratic Committee (FCDC) Jefferson-Jackson Dinner. Here are the straw poll results. Keep in mind that Brian Moran and Jody Wagner were strongly favored to win this straw poll among the Fairfax County Democratic establishment, so take the results with however many grains of salt you prefer. Also, keep in mind that it cost $150 per person to attend the dinner, $300 per person if you wanted to attend the VIP reception, so this wasn't exactly the average people of Fairfax last night.Governor
Brian Moran: 166 (40.9%)
Creigh Deeds: 123 (30.3%)
Terry McAuliffe: 117 (28.8)
Lieutenant Governor
Jody Wagner: 260 (65.7%)
Mike Signer: 136 (34.3%)
I'll be uploading some video, depending on whether technology cooperates or not.
A few other random thoughts on the dinner.
*This is the last major Democratic candidate event prior to election day on June 9. Yes, we're finally coming down the home stretch.
*The schedule of the dinner got scrambled because Mark Warner, who was supposed to be the keynote speaker, had to leave for some reason. Jim Webb filled in and did an excellent job, with his call for Democratic post-primary unity very well received.
*I talked to a lot of people I haven't seen in a while, and it was definitely good to catch up.
*It was great seeing Jon Bowerbank at the dinner. Even though Jon's no longer a candidate, he still appears very interested in public service and in staying involved in Virginia Democratic politics. Good for him.
*All the candidates seemed tired, as did the crowd, which didn't seem as "into it" as at last year's FCDC JJ dinner, for instance. This has been a loooong campaign, following a loooong presidential primary and election season in 2007/2008. I heard a few people saying they just wish we could take a break from politics for a while.
*Just about everyone who saw or read about the Republican convention yesterday seems to feel that they've got a divisive, extreme ticket, but also that they are skillful politicians and will be tough to beat. We have to make sure that Virginians know how far out of the mainstream Bob McDonnell, Bill Bolling and Ken Cuccinelli really are.
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I'm assuming that the Brian campaign will try to spin this in their favor but let's face it, this was the crowd that should have had him running away with this. If Creigh is able to win 30% next week in Northern Virginia then I think there's a strong possibility that he'll be the nominee come June 10th!
ReplyDeleteListening to the candidates for Gov speak I was taken by how worn down Creigh and Brian sounded. I thought Terry did an outstanding job and his energy were still at a high level. I'm not surprised by the straw poll results, but from talking to a lot of people tonight, they expect an entirely different result on June 9th.
ReplyDeleteDaniel - I'd say it's more Terry's back yard than Brian's. Terry, should of done better in my opinion. Creigh coming in 2nd is big for him, I'd agree.
ReplyDeleteAnyone have the count of all the straw polls together? It'd be interesting to see the grand total for every one of them compares to the actual vote, regionals breakdown, etc.
Well, I see what you mean in regards to Terry's backyard since Tysons is a stone's throw from McLean but I guess I should have said where Brian's "base" is. (At least I believe most thought he was "strongest" in NoVa) I thought Terry would have done stronger than that as well but then again not totally surprised by Creigh's strong performance because a lot of people are taking notice to the Post endorsement (Much more than I ever thought)
ReplyDeleteOnly question about the primary now is whether Terry or Creigh will be 3rd.
ReplyDeletejwsevert, odd you would ask whether Terry or Creigh will finish in 3rd. Terry has had a double digit lead in the last 4 polls. Creigh has moved up somewhat in the polls and is in second place securely (for the moment).
ReplyDeletePersonally, I'm wondering if Moran will win anywhere outside of the 8th CD. It seems like his base is shrinking daily.
ReplyDeletejwsevert: So you're seriously arguing that one straw poll on Brian Moran's political "home turf," at which people had to pay $150 each to attend, outweighs all the real polls which show Brian lagging far behind? Fascinating "reasoning," I must say. :)
ReplyDeleteGo Creigh! Great win over Terry
ReplyDeleteLowell, maybe you can answer what happened since Terry's big win at the Connelly Straw Poll, also in Fairfax correct?
ReplyDeleteI honestly think, there's a disconnect going on between the polls, straw polls, and whats actually occuring on the ground.
This will be won or loss by GOTV and identification, and none of the campaigns are tipping their hats to that.
VaDemPolitico: The straw polls are all over the place, while the "real" polls have been relatively stable for weeks now. Of course, I'm not sure how much we should believe any polls, but if I had to choose, I'd go with the "real" ones over the "straw" kind. Also, I'd emphasize that "straw polls" only mean something when they mean something among the sample of people they "poll," and even then the statistical significance can be called into question (as it certainly was by the Moran people in the case of the Connolly straw poll). Fortunately, in 8 days, we won't have to talk about polls anymore, because we'll have actual votes in an actual election. I can't wait.
ReplyDeleteAgreed on the not have to discuss this, on to the polls of nominee vs. McD's!
ReplyDeleteI would like someone do a comparison of the straw polls, other polls, real vote, when it's over. I think there'll be surprises come Tuesday.