A cogent, albeit short, analysis of North Korea's nuclear test from private intelligence firm Stratfor.com (to become a member click here).With Kim Jong Il working to shape the future leadership of the nation after his stroke in 2008, the regime has become more belligerent externally and isolationist, as it seeks to balance competing factions internally. The April missile test and the May nuclear test are both part of this pattern, as are North Korea’s more hard-line stance on joint economic projects with South Korea. Pyongyang is not likely to return to the negotiating table until after it sorts out its internal political issues — and in the meantime will continue to carry out actions that demonstrate its “independence” and strength — even while stirring up concerns in the international community.This pattern, of course, is highly common in international relations, as countries pursue their internal political battles by other means.
Aside from domestic politics, there's also the international perspective:
It was important for North Korea to follow up its last 2006 test with another. Because the seismographic data was not simply inconclusive, but completely incompatible with a successful nuclear test, the burden of proof regarding establishing its nuclear abilities continued to rest on Pyongyang. While there were a number of reasons for North Korea to walk the line in 2006, the indecisive 2006 test means that the following test almost certainly would have been intended definitively to declare that Pyongyang is a nuclear power.In sum, North Korea has two main goals here: 1) safeguard the regime from internal coup or external attempts to undermine it; and 2) safeguard the nation from military attack. For the past few years, North Korea appears to have been succeeding in both these areas, as the Bush Administration utterly failed to change North Korea's calculus for the better. Now, although Bush is gone, the problem continues, having fallen into our new president's lap. This will certainly pose a test for Obama - in conjunction with allies (Japan, South Korea) and other interested parties (e.g., China, Russia) - in the weeks and months ahead, with the challenge being to calibrate a response that deals with the situation without, on the one hand, giving North Korea everything it wants, or on the other hand getting too belligerent at a time when we really can't afford another war. Good luck.
That required a more decisive reading on the Richter scale. While final readings are not in (the results of atmospheric samples are generally classified and their implications take longer to emerge), Pyongyang has an incentive definitively to establish its nuclear capability. Only further analysis will decide North Korea was successful in this endeavor.
UPDATE 10:56 am: President Obama calls the nuclear test "a grave concern to all nations."
