I agree with Teacherken on his analysis of polls and "straw polls":Let's start with the two straw polls, in Fredericksburg and Winchester. Moran kicked ass in Fredericksburg, Deeds did so in Winchester. In general, straw polls do not tell us all that much we do not already know. There are exceptions, such as Webb surprisingly winning the straw poll at Connolly's St. Paddy's Day event in 2006, when most people assumed that Miller had the poll rapped up. The Webb campaign did not have the money to buy a lot of tickets for supporters, so the results then were a reflection of the support he was drawing on the ground, from ordinary people.I would also add that many of these "straw polls" have tiny vote totals, sometimes only 30 or 40 people, so I'd take them with a tall pillar of salt for that reason and all the other reasons listed above by Teacherken. Of course, I'd also take "scientific" polls with some salt, but a grain not a pillar in this case. The fact is, "scientific" polls aren't perfect by any stretch of the imagination (especially in low-turnout elections), but they are infinitely more predictive than "straw polls" with their low vote totals, their susceptibility to one or more candidates to pack the "poll" with their supporters, etc.
But most straw polls tend to be reflective of the support one has from party regulars in that area. In a low turnout primary, that may be fairly indicative of the kind of support in that area one will see when people vote, because not only will these regulars vote, they are the key to turning out others.
But when the turnout begins to increase beyond the party base, you get a higher percentage of people who do not react the way party regulars do, so the straw polls may carry less weight.
As a Deeds and Signer report, let me thus comment first on the recent 5th CD straw poll and the one in Winchester. In both cases candidates I support did quite well - Deeds over 90% in the 5th and almost 80% in Winchester. Deeds lives in the 6th, but has strong support throughout the Valley (Winchester) and in much of the 5th (his Senate district overlaps a chunk, and among Democrats he was known for his strong support of Perriello). Thus he would be expected to win a real primary vote, but almost certainly not by such obscene margins. As for Signer, he has personal roots in the 5th - especially in Charlottesville - and he was present for the poll while Wagner was not. Mike is an effective speaker. Thus his 66% margin may or may not be indicative. Further, his campaign chair is Dem. party chair of a County in the 5th (Lunenberg), which further amplifies Mike's support among party regulars. It is possible he could win 2/3 of the vote in a 2-way,but that straw poll took place when Bowerbank was still in the race, and thus was in a 3-way contest.
Again, as Teacherken notes above, what made Jim Webb's victory over Harris Miller in the 2006 St. Patrick's Day straw poll so important was that: a) Harris Miller was the overwhelming favorite, as the poll was held on Miller's home turf, at his ally Gerry Connolly's own event; b) Webb had no money, so he couldn't affort to buy tickets for supporters, thus this was almost certainly true grassroots in nature; c) Miller did have money, so by all rights he should have been able to pay for enough tickets to win that poll; and d) it was a shocker that nobody was expecting, as opposed to most straw polls which are a complete yawner (wow, candidate x won a straw poll among a group of people who overwhelmingly support candidate x, you don't say - lol).
So, keep all those factors in mind over the next 18 days or so, as "straw polls" proliferate and are touted by supporters of McAuliffe, Deeds, Moran, Signer, Wagner, House of Delegates candidates, Adam Lambert, Kris Allen, or whoever else might show up on one of these things. :)
