I just read this diary, which postulates that, given "Creigh's recent surge in the polls and Brian's lack of movement in addition to the momentum from the...endorsement [of Creigh Deeds] from the Washington Post," Brian Moran supporters could start switching to Creigh Deeds in large enough numbers over the next 16 days in order to "stop" Terry McAuliffe. For the following reasons, I completely disagree that this will happen (not even getting into whether or not I want it to happen, which of course I don't). My reasoning?1. Deeds simply doesn't have the resources to go communicate in NOVA - no TV or radio is a big disadvantage in this part of Virginia - and so it's hard to see how he capitalizes on his Post endorsement, Moran's stagnation/decline, or whatever else. Here in Arlington, for instance, I literally haven't seen a single Creigh Deeds sign on the median strips. I haven't received anything in the mail from the Deeds campaign. And obviously, I haven't seen any TV or heard any radio ads by Creigh Deeds. Unless that changes right after Memorial Day, and in a big way, I doubt Deeds is going anywhere in NOVA.
2. "Strategic switching" is often talked about but rarely done (remember the Nader/Gore "trade your vote" thing in 2000?). Sure, a few Moran supporters might throw in the towel and switch to Deeds, but I find it hard to believe that many will do so over the next two weeks, barring a stunning move like Moran dropping out and endorsing Deeds, which is simply not gonna happen.
3. This "dislike of McAuliffe" meme is wildly overblown. According to Research2000's recent poll, for instance, McAuliffe has a favorable rating among Democrats of 62%, with just 19% "unfavorable." This compares to 17% "unfavorable" for Deeds and 16% "unfavorable" for Moran, both of whom have lower "favorables" as well because of overall lower name recognition. In short, the Democratic electorate likes all three of its gubernatorial candidates, with very small percentages "unfavorable" towards any of them. Again, this simply does not support the theory that a mass movement from Moran to Deeds will take place over the next 16 days (or ever, for that matter).
4. Even if a little movement takes place from Moran to Deeds, it probably helps McAuliffe on balance, as Moran continues to be the strongest (although not by much) candidate against McAuliffe, particularly in vote-rich NOVA. In other words, go Creigh Deeds (versus Brian Moran, that is)! :)
5. The McAuliffe campaign has the strongest field program by a wide margin. This is important both for GOTV as well as for "persuasion," most likely up until 72 hours before the election on June 9. Especially with the Deeds campaign letting go several of its field staff, it's not likely that either Deeds or Moran will be able to even come close to McAuliffe in this crucial area.
In sum, for all the reasons listed above, there is absolutely no reason to believe that any significant Moran-to-Deeds movement will take place in the last two weeks of this race, certainly not in any way that will "stop" Terry McAuliffe. As much as a few bloggers would like to believe it.
