For the past few months, I've been closely following the race to succeed Del. Al Eisenberg (D-47), who announced on January 22 that he would not seek re-election in November. This announcement has unleashed a flurry of activity in the 47th House district, which encompasses the following areas of Arlington County: Ashton Heights, Ballston, Barcroft, Glen Carlyn, Clarendon, Lyon Park, Overlee Knolls, Westover, Arlington Forest, Fillmore, Jefferson, Dominion Hills, Lexington, Arlington View, Ashlawn, Virginia Square, Woodbury, Buckingham, Central, Monroe and Taylor. Currently, there are five candidates - Alan Howze, Adam Parkhomenko, Miles Grant, Patrick Hope and Andres Tobar - filed for the Democratic nomination (an almost 100% guarantee in heavily Democratic Arlington County of being the next delegate). There's also one other individual, top Tim Kaine aide Alfonso Lopez, who's been considering a run but has not made an announcement as of yet. With that, here's what I'm hearing about the candidates, the order of presentation here being roughly the general consensus on their current position in the race, chances of winning, etc.5. Alan Howze
Having worked for Rick Boucher and Mark Warner (political director), Howze's experience is considered to fall primarily in the "political operative" category. Among other things, Howze's connections should allow him to raise significant amounts of money. However, the general consensus from what I'm hearing is that Howze doesn't really have a "niche," a particular community or issue with which to distinguish himself. Also, I've heard some people say they like him, but others say he's "hard to warm up to." Overall, the consensus is that Howze is probably running fifth out of the five candidates right now. We'll see if he can change that in the next 99 days or so.
4. Andres Tobar
Tobar, a long-time civic and political activist in Arlington County, primarily on issues related to the Hispanic/Latino community (e.g., executive director of the Shirlington Employment & Education Center, which oversees hiring of day laborers), is coming off a winning campaign - Emma Violand-Sanchez for Arlington School Board, which he managed. Tobar's extensive ties to the Latino community, however, may not help him very much in the 47th district, which does not have a large Latino population. In 2003, Tobar ran for House of Delegates in the 49th, finishing third (behind Adam Ebbin and Teresa Martinez) in a 5-say race, despite the conventional wisdom at the time that Tobar would win because he had the most endorsements. That loss led many people to conclude that Tobar is a great guy, but not an effective candidate (some say he's too laid back about it). We'll see if Tobar can ratchet it up a few notches this time around. One other point is that Tobar has been close to Al Eisenberg, which probably won't lead to an endorsement for Tobar but could keep Eisenberg from throwing his support to someone like Adam Parkhomenko, a close family friend of the Eisenbergs...
3. Miles Grant
Grant (aka, "The Green Miles") is seen as having a strong policy niche on a crucially important topic - the environment, which he has blogged about extensively and which he works on every day at the National Wildlife Federation. Grant also is seen as having a network of younger Democrats, including leading grassroots activists like Kip Malinosky, who support him. Grant is certainly working hard, knocking on doors, and building a strong, grassroots campaign. The questions are: 1) will Miles be able to raise enough money to be competitive; 2) will he be able to win without any establishment endorsements (the conventional wisdom is that he won't get them because he's not buddies with those folks); and 3) will he be able to rally young Democrats and environmentalists to vote for him while also expanding out from there? That's what we're going to find out in the next 99 days.
2. Adam Parkhomenko
The 23-year-old Parkhomenko has lived in the 47th his entire (young) life. The general consensus is that he has terrific political experience, contacts, energy and fundraising potential. He's working full time at this race, having left his job with the National Center for Missing & Exploited Children. He's got an office, a campaign manager, and is knocking doors like a fiend. Parkhomenko is expected to tap into the Hillary Clinton network for money and support of all kinds, given his long work for Senator Clinton (including on the Clinton for President campaign). Parkhomenko is also expected to draw support from police officers, based on his service in the Metropolitan Police Reserve Corps. Finally, Parkhomenko received a major endorsement today from Sen. Patsy Ticer (D-30), and this has greatly impressed the Arlington politicos I've spoken with. For all these reasons, Parkhomenko is considered a strong contender for the nomination, despite his youth and relative lack of education, experience, etc.
1. Patrick Hope
Hope is an attorney with an impressive bio, including extensive community involvement. Hope has been particularly active working on behalf of the homeless and kids (Special Olympics, "Hope for Kids," etc.). Through this work, Hope has established many strong connections with elected officials, and those are leading to endorsements by people like Arlington County Board Chair Barbara Favola, Arlington County Board Member Mary Hynes, and Arlington County School Board member Elaine Furlow. Finally, Hope is considered to be a strong speaker and "very likeable guy" (I've heard this over and over). The questions with Hope are: a) with everything else going on in his life, will he have time and energy to devote himself 100% to this campaign; b) will he get out there and knock on doors; and c) how much will endorsements matter compared to door knocking and grassroots support. All in all, Hope is the consensus pick right now as the front runner, but it's not by a wide margin in any way, shape or form.
Last, although Alfonso Lopez is not an announced candidate as of this moment, his entry into the race could change the dynamics (and above ranking) significantly, so he's definitely worth talking about in this context. If Lopez enters the race, almost everyone believes that he could be a serious contender -- but NOT a shoo-in by any means -- for the nomination. On the other hand, several observers I've spoken with believe that Lopez has waited so long that he's allowed other candidates to race ahead in door knocking, fundraising, organization building, etc. Certainly, everyone believes that Lopez has many strengths, including his close relationship with the Kaine administration (and many others). Several people have mentioned to me that County Board member Chris Zimmerman, and possibly others (Bob Brink?), could endorse Lopez if he throws his hat in the ring. And it's widely assumed that Lopez has the potential to raise a lot of money. In the end, the general consensus is that Lopez could "make a big splash...or not," depending on how hard he's willing to work at this (with just 99 days to go), how far ahead the other candidates have already gotten, how much money he actually is able to raise, etc.
In sum, this is going to be a very interesting 99 days in Arlington's 47th House of Delegates district, with no clear front-runner to replace Al Eisenberg, so definitely stay tuned!
Full disclosure: Back in December 2008, RK - before it closed its doors - endorsed Miles Grant for Delegate. I voted "yes" to endorse Miles, based on my friendship with him, but more importantly based on his demonstrated passion for the environment -- and other progressive issues as well. I also consider Adam Parkhomenko to be a good friend.
