According to the headline of this article, the recent Fairfax County board special election, in which Republican John C. Cook defeated Democrat Ilryong Moon by a narrow margin in the Braddock District, was the result of a "course shift" by Republicans. Former Congressman Tom Davis is quoted that Fairfax County residents are "smart people" who "want pragmatic leadership," and that Cook's election is evidence that "Fairfax County is competitive again." That's essentially what Davis has been arguing for a while now, that Republicans can only win in places like Fairfax County - and increasingly in Virginia as a whole - if they are (or at least appear) to be more "moderate" (e.g., avoid hot-button social issues like immigration, gay rights, abortion). Now, Tom Davis is certainly one of those "smart people" he talks about, but this analysis seems like a bit of a stretch to me for several reasons.First, take Davis wife, Jeannemarie Devolites Davis, and her loss to Chap Petersen for State Senate in 2007. In that race, also in Fairfax's 34th Senate District - which, by the way, overlaps in the south with the Braddock District - Devolites Davis ran as a gay-friendly, pro-environment "RINO" ("Republican in Name Only") but lost badly (55%-44%) regardless.
Second, as Fairfax County Democratic Committee chair Scott Surovell explains, it's difficult to draw conclusions from a special election in one particular magisterial district which, as Surovell points out, leans Republican. Surovell adds that special elections generally favor Republicans, and that Republicans right now are more motivated than Democrats, a situation which may or may not continue as the year goes by. We'll see.
Third, let's look at what happened to Tom Davis himself, who intended to run for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by John Warner, but who announced in October 2007 that he would not do so. Recall that Davis made this decision in large part because he knew he was likely to lose the Republican nominating convention to a much more conservative Republican like Jim Gilmore (or even Bob Marshall). And there's the rub for all these (supposedly) "moderate" Republicans: before they can compete and possibly win the general election, they have to get the nomination, and that's going to be difficult when Republican party activists are overwhelmingly - surprise, surprise - conservatives! (On this one, I actually agree with Bob Marshall, who is quoted in the Post article that "If you try to hide who you are, it shows...voters will pick up on that lack of genuineness.")
Fourth, Cook didn't run so much as a moderate Republican as he simply ignored the hot-button social issues. That's not likely to replicate itself in general election campaigns this year or in years to come (in part because Democrats won't let them do it). However, I'd expect even Pat Robertson Republicans like Bob McDonnell to try and grab the ever-elusive "moderate" label for himself. If McDonnell manages to pull that one off, I may start believing Tom Davis.
Finally, it may just be that Cook ran a stronger campaign than Moon in this particular election in this particular part of Fairfax County at this particular point in time. How Davis leaps from this one narrow, Republican victory to "Fairfax County is competitive again" is beyond me.
