With all the articles about how Bob McDonnell and Creigh Deeds aren't doing much of anything right now (see "Governor Hopefuls Veer Off The Trail" and "Deeds lays groundwork for next phase of race for Virginia governor", for instance), I thought it would be interesting to look back four years to see what was going on in July 2005. Of course, that year Democrats didn't have a gubernatorial primary, although we did have a 4-way contest for lieutenant governor (between Viola Baskerville, Leslie Byrne, Chap Petersen and Phil Puckett). *On July 1, 2005, a SurveyUSA poll showed a 10-point lead (49%-39%) for Jerry Kilgore over Tim Kaine heading into the 4th of July. This time around, the latest PPP poll has Bob McDonnell leading Creigh Deeds by 6 points, 49%-43%. Not much difference, in other words, except that Deeds is a bit closer to McDonnell than Kaine was to Kilgore at the same time. Hopefully, the end result will be the same - a big victory for Deeds over McDonnell, just as Kaine surged ahead of Kilgore at the end and beat him soundly.
*On July 9, 2005, I wrote in Raising Kaine about the summer kickoff in McLean, "with special guests Tim Kaine, Leslie Byrne, and Creigh Deeds, also known as the 'T-L-C' ticket" (that's right, the Democratic ticket already had a nickname). In their speeches, the candidates emphasized some familiar themes that I'm sure we'll be hearing about this year as well -- how the Republicans "opposed every single thing Mark Warner and [Tim Kaine] have accomplished the last three years," how "this race is going to be extremely tough," how Democrats are "fiscally responsible" and responsible for Virginia being the "best managed state in the country," and about how Mark Warner (did I mention Mark Warner) "restored credibility to the Democratic Party" in Virginia as the party of fiscal responsiblity. Sound familiar?
*On July 13, 2005, Creigh Deeds was the keynote speaker at Arlington's Jefferson-Jackson Dinner. Deeds talked about he's a "country guy" with "4 kids, 4 horses, 5 ponies, and a donkey named Harry S. Truman." He emphasized his strong belief in the Democratic Party's ability to "organize government to effect real change in ordinary peoples' lives." He praised Mark Warner for teaching us that Democrats can and must be the "party of government," the "party of responsiblity," and "about bigger things [like] improving peoples' lives." He charged that his opponent, Bob McDonnnell, would be holding his first post-primaries news conference that very day not to lay out a positive vision, but simply "to attack me." He pointed out that McDonnell opposes using stem-cell research to cure terrible diseases, pointed out that McDonnell opposes using stem-cell research to cure terrible diseases. In sum, Deeds says that Bob McDonnell is an "out-of-the-mainstream" candidate who "talks the talk" while "I walk the walk." Still, Deeds stressed that "that doesn't mean the election will be easy," which is why he needs everyone's help in the next 119 days. Sound familiar?
*On July 16, Tim Kaine and Jerry Kilgore debated at the Greenbrier Resort in West Virginia. At the debate, Kaine confronted Kilgore on his opposition to everything Mark Warner and he did for our state, including opposition to the budget reform act of 2004, which restored Virginia's AAA bond rating and turned the state around. And, not surprisingly, Kilgore immediately went negative, launching into a slashing attack on Kaine in just about every way and on just about every issue. Kaine's response? "So much for positive campaigning!"
*Last but not least, on July 19, I wrote in Raising Kaine about a fundraiser for TIm Kaine in Arlington with "one of the great rising stars, not of the Democratic Party, but of the United States of America" - some guy named Barack Obama. :)
When I spoke with Barack Obama after the speeches, I asked him about the Howell/Kilgore strategy of tearing people down, of dividing people, of using racial code language, even of denigrating other peoples' religion and values. I asked him how we fight that without sinking to their level. In a nutshell, Obama's classy answer was that Democrats need to focus on our own "message of hope," because "when people feel helpless they're vulnerable" to the type of fear-mongering that Kilgore and Howell are engaged in. Then, as this race continues over the next few months, the voters of Virginia will come to see that the Kaine/Byrne/Deeds ticket offers hope and opportunity for the future, a chance to move us all forward as a state and as a people. In contrast, Kilgore/Bolling/McDonnell offer the exact opposite.True. And in 2009, McDonnell/Bolling/Cuccinelli "offer the exact opposite" as well. The more things change...?
Actually, I would say that there are some significant differences between July 2005 and July 2009 in terms of the Virginia governor's race. First, in July 2005, there was a lot more activity than this July. In fact, I'd say that the governor's race had been well underway for months by this point, with the main themes well defined, the campaigns well organized (and cranking), and the candidates already going after each other hard. This year? Not as much. Second, in July 2005, Democrats were a lot more energized than they are today, mainly as a result of anger against George W. Bush and frustration in the aftermath of John Kerry's loss the past November. For Democrats, the desire to win somewhere, anywhere, was intense. This year, I'd say that the shoe is on the other foot, with Republicans angry and desperately wanting to win here in Virginia. Democrats, on the other hand, appear somewhat burned out, maybe even complacent. We'll see if that changes, but for now, I definitely feel a big difference between the mood and energy level in July 2005 vs. the mood and energy level today. Finally, in July 2005, the top of our ticket had been set for a long time, with Tim Kaine holding a sizeable warchest and a large campaign operation. This time around, the Deeds campaign emerged from the primary victorious, but with very little money or staff and needing to ramp up fast. On the Republican side, in both 2005 and 2009 there was no primary for governor and their candidates held the polling advantage (albeit not by enormous margins).
Anyway, those are just a few thoughts that spring to mind in comparing where we were in July 2005 vs. where we are today. Any others you'd add?
