Public Policy Polling has some interesting thoughts on yesterday's SurveyUSA poll.A separate Virginia poll SUSA put out yesterday showed Bob McDonnell up 15 points on Creigh Deeds, but was criticized because those sampled reported having voted for John McCain by nine points, quite different than Obama's six point victory in the state last fall.The question is, why is there "very little interest" among core Democratic constituency groups this year in Virginia? Voter fatigue after 2008? Complacency? More interest in national issues? A lack of inspiration and/or excitement from the Democratic ticket, for whatever reason(s)? The fact that Democrats simply haven't tuned in yet but will do so after Labor Day? All (or some) of the above? Or, is The Richmonder onto something here?
Although I doubt the electorate there this fall will be that Republican leaning, it is worth noting that we have found very little interest in the election from black and young voters who were so pivotal to Democratic success in the state last fall. So I would not be shocked if those who turn out this year split evenly or had some lean toward McCain last year. We're going to ask that on our poll of the state this weekend.
Whatever the reason(s), it does appear right now that Virginia Democratic activists aren't as fired up as Virginia Republican activists. Having worked hard four years ago to help elect Kaine, Byrne and Deeds, I definitely notice a difference. At this point in 2005, the progressive grassroots and netroots were cranking. This year, not so much. There's also no comparison between the energy level now and the energy levels at this same point in 2006 and 2008. Of course, there's still time to turn the situation around, but after the elections that didn't go our way (or barely did) last winter and spring in Fairfax County and Alexandria City, combined with the seeming lack of grassroots/netroots energy right now, that turnaround had better start happening soon or I'm starting to think this could be a rough election.
P.S. Don't forget, PPP will be polling Virginia this weekend, so stay close to your phones! Ha. :)
