At 10:30 am this morning, Creigh Deeds and Bob McDonnell will debate before the Fairfax County Chamber of Commerce in Tysons Corner. What should we be looking for? Here are a few by Washington Post Virginia reporter, Anita Kumar, with my comments as well.*"Whose transportation plan will better appeal to Northern Virginians?"
According to Kumar, Deeds' transportation plan "has offered no details" while McDonnell's has been (correctly) criticized because it "would take money from public education, public safety and other core services." Transportation is an absolutely crucial issue in NOVA, so this should be interesting...
*"How will Deeds respond to questions about federal issues?"
EJ Dionne quotes a "Democratic advisor" as saying that "this is a race between Barack Obama's spending and Bob McDonnell's thesis." If that's true, and I believe it is to an extent, then we can be almost sure McDonnell will keep trying to make this about "federal issues" and that Deeds will try to focus on "Virginia issues" (as Mark Warner yesterday recommended Deeds do). Personally, I've never really understood how you can successfully separate the two, as (last I checked) Virginia is an integral part of the country as a whole (which is why Virginia's economy and budget are hurting like pretty much every other state's). In addition, NOVA is right next door to the nation's capital, with many NOVA residents working either for the federal government or for a federal contractor, and also with many NOVA residents intensely focused on the very national issues Deeds would rather not talk about. This should be interesting.
*"How will McDonnell react to questions about his graduate thesis and social issues?"
As veteran Virginia reporter Bob Lewis notes, this debate - "the one debate every statewide candidate circles on his calendar and dreads" - is where, three years ago, George Allen had a meltdown about his own past. Will Bob McDonnell do the same today if David Gregory presses him on that now-infamous thesis he wrote at Pat Robertson's law school 20 years ago? Stay tuned!
*"Can Deeds win over Northern Virginia voters?"
This is a crucial question. The bottom line is this: for Deeds to defeat McDonnell on election day this year, he will have to rack up large victory margins - not just in percentage terms but in absolute number of votes - in NOVA. This was Deeds' undoing in 2005 and a top challenge for him in 2009 (another is revving up African American turnout in Richmond and Hampton Roads). The challenge, as Kumar writes, is that Deeds "hails from one of the most rural parts of the state, supports gun rights, has a somewhat conservative voting record (for a Democrat) and speaks with a twang."
I believe all that can be overcome, through a combination of a) letting everyone know who Bob McDonnell really is (hint: Pat Robertson); and b) demonstrating that Deeds clearly understands not just the needs of urban/suburban/exurban areas like NOVA, but also the culture. Bob McDonnell "gets" that, which is why we see ad after ad of him as a suburban soccer dad in NOVA or Hampton Roads (depending on which region he's targeting), not to mention overall messaging that claims McDonnell is "NOVA's own" (or "Hampton Roads' own"). In short, one goal in this debate for Creigh is to start making NOVA "Deeds country," not a foreign land with strange, incomprehensible customs. If Deeds can do that, he can definitely win this election. If not, it could be a looong night on November 3.
