Public Policy Polling is out with its latest Virginia poll, and overall it's encouraging news for Democrats. Keep in mind that PPP "completed 86% of the interviews for this poll on Friday and Saturday so the numbers don't fully reflect any fall out from [the McDonnell thesis] story." With that, here are the highlights:*"The race to be the next Governor of Virginia is back in single digits, as Creigh Deeds has pulled to within 49-42 against Bob McDonnell after trailing 51-37 a month ago." From 14 points to 7 points in just a month? I'll take it, especially given that only 14% of poll interviews were conducted post-Post story.
*"The movement in the race seems to be driven largely by an increase in Democratic enthusiasm for Deeds' candidacy." Again, something tells me that the Washington Post story on Bob McDonnell's anti-women, theocratic thesis will only boost Democratic enthusiasm further in weeks to come.
*More evidence that the "enthusiasm" gap is closing: "where a month ago Democratic interest in the election was so low that those planning to vote in November had supported John McCain by a 52-41 margin last year even though Obama won the state by six points, we now find that spread at only 49-45 in McCain's favor." Still not great, but getting closer, and again almost all of this was pre-Washington Post blockbuster.
*McDonnell retains a strong lead (60%-29%) among independent voters, but given that many (most?) independents aren't Pat Robertson fans, I have a feeling those numbers are going to tighten up substantially in coming weeks.
*Last but not least, I LOVE this, even given the large margin of error: "...it is worth noting that while McDonnell led 50-41 in the two days of polling before the article, Deeds actually led 50-42 in the 83 interviews conducted on Sunday and Monday."
The bottom line is this: Bob McDonnell has spent months if not years trying to convince people that he's really a "moderate." Well, now, that carefully constructed facade is falling apart, and with it very likely his lead in the polls. No wonder why McDonnell admitted that right-wing Republicans like himself would require "creative marketing" (translation: reinvention, lies) to get elected.
P.S. I'm not sure what to make of the fact that Jody Wagner on trails by 6 points (46%-40%) to Bill Bolling but Steve Shannon trails by 13 points (48%-35%) to Cooch. Something doesn't make sense there.
