Galuszka is probably right that the explosion of outside money in the race was one key factor in Gecker's loss. But he obscures a key part of Sturtevant's success: making it personal. Mike Bloomberg didn't fly down to Virginia and bust out his checkbook. But everyone -- including mainstream media outlets - bought that line and unwittingly helped send Gecker home.
Yes, the non-profit advocacy group Everytown for Gun Safety targeted the 10th District race for an almost unprecedented ad buy of an announced $700k. But as Jeff Shapiro pointed out, that amount was at least matched on Sturtevant's side by the Republican State Leadership Committee, plus additional support from non-profits like the NRA.
Republicans wisely portrayed the Everytown money as coming directly from a New York billionaire. But Bloomberg, although a key funder of the organization, only created one of the group's component parts (the mayors' coalition) and doesn't seem to be heavily involved in the day-to-day running of the organization. Why not blame Warren Buffett, who also funds the group? Answer: Buffett is a folk hero to conservatives, while Bloomberg is a NYC Jewish "liberal." (Which in Powhatan, might as well be a space alien.)
We'll see more of this next year. Many observers noted how this year's VA races, particularly the 10th, was a kind of laboratory for next year's Presidential race. We'll soon see a host of national organizations flood Virginia airwaves with TV ads in this key electoral college state. Let's hope the media gets a little more savvy about how they report about these expenditures, and not just parrot a party line. Hasn't poor Mike Bloomberg suffered enough?