A few points I'd make from looking at this graph (click to "embiggen").
1. Overall, Creigh Deeds received 165,302 fewer votes than Mark Warner received in 2001, and 207,067 fewer votes than Tim Kaine received in 2005. This, despite the fact that the number of registered voters increased by 847,651 from 2001 to 2009.
2. On average, Deeds fell off 18,824 votes per Congressional District from Tim Kaine and 15,027 voters per CD from Mark Warner.
3. Deeds' fell off the most from Tim Kaine in the 7th (-28,923 votes), the 9th (-22,279 votes), the 5th (-20,563 votes) and the 6th (-19,049 votes) - "Deeds Country," in other words. [Note: in 2005, Kaine ran against far SWVA native Jerry Kilgore]
4. Deeds fell off the least from Tim Kaine in the 3rd (-13,178 votes), 2nd (-14,962 votes), 8th (-16,202 votes) and the 1st (-17,108 votes) CD's - relatively diverse, urban/suburban districts (the 1st is somewhat more rural) in the eastern part of the state.
5. Deeds fell off the most from Mark Warner in the 9th (-27,420 votres), 5th (-22,215 votes), 1st (-20,260 votes) and 4th (-20,234 votes) CD's - "Deeds Country" plus the eclectic 1st CD. [Note: in 2001, Warner ran against Chesapeake resident Mark Earley]
6. Deeds fell off the least from Mark Warner in the 3rd (+1,064 votes), 8th (-3,847 votes), 11th (-4,742 votes) and 2nd (-6,283 votes) CD's - relatively diverse, urban/suburban districts in the eastern part of the state.
7. In percentage terms, Deeds' largest dropoffs compared to Kaine came in the 9th (-30%), 7th (-27%), 5th (-23%) and 6th (-23%) - "Deeds Country."
8. In percentage terms, Deeds' smallest dropoffs compared to Kaine came in the diverse 3rd and 8th (-13% each), the suburban 11th (-18%) and and suburban/rural 10th (-19%).
9. In percentage terms, Deeds' largest dropoffs compared to Warner came in the 9th (-34%), 5th and 6th (-24% each), 1st and 4th (-22% each) - "Deeds Country" plus the eclectic 1st CD.
10. In percentage terms, Deeds' smallest dropoffs compared to Warner came in the 3rd (+1%), 8th (-4%), 11th (-5%) and 2nd (-10%) - diverse, urban/suburban districts in the eastern part of the state.
What do I conclude from all this? First and foremost, that Creigh Deeds - despite running as a "rural centrist," running away from national Democratic priorities like "cap and trade" and health care reform, and devoting a large share of time and resources to what he called "Deeds Country," got totally wiped out in said "Deeds Country." So much for that strategy! Why is this the case, though? One certainly would have thought, a priori, that someone who represented a chunk of "Deeds Country" in the state senate might have done well there...but no. I can think of four possible explanations: 1) that Deeds was simply an ineffective candidate with a horrible, incompetent campaign; 2) that Bob McDonnell did an extraordinary job of connecting to "Deeds Country" voters; 3) that this article is on to something and "Deeds Country" is truly unhappy with national Democratic policies; and 4) that "Deeds Country" is hurting worse economically than districts in the more urban/suburban eastern parts of the state, where federal spending - military and otherwise - has helped cushion the blow economically to a greater extent than in the more rural, western areas?
Second, Deeds actually did relatively well in more diverse CDs in eastern Virginia (although let's be clear; Deeds fell off pretty much everywhere from Kaine and Warner). Why might this have been the case? See the reasons listed above and add your own. I've got to say, I'm a bit surprised that Deeds did worse, relatively speaking (although again, he did badly everywhere), in "Deeds Country" than he did in the rest of the state. Is economic (and other) anger simply greater in "Deeds Country" than it is elsewhere in Virginia? I don't know, but it's very striking that the guy from Bath County did worse in rural and Appalachian Virginia than the rich guy from Alexandria and the lawyer from Richmond City.
Finally, I'm out of ideas at this point so I'm just going to open this up to discussion and see what other people think. Have fun, and good luck!
