I've never agreed with Tom Davis much on the issues, but I've always thought he was a smart political analyst. I particularly loved his description of the Republican brand as a can of dog food that needed to be taken off the shelf. :) Seriously, though, Davis is a smart guy, so when he talks, I listen to what he has to say. For instance, I think there's some truth in this:Former congressman Tom Davis said the results [of the narrow Charniele Herring and Sharon Bulova victories in recent special elections] were reminiscent of the Fairfax of the 1990s, when many more supervisors and lawmakers represented swing districts. He said the Democrats who stayed home are the same voters who have been tilting recent elections blue: young people, minorities and newcomers who were motivated at least in part because of their antipathy toward the outgoing president
"He's gone," Davis said of Bush. "At this point, re-creating the bogeyman is much harder for them. They also face the burden of governing. What they're going to find is that this strong gale-force wind is no longer at their back, and they're going to find it in their face."
First off, I agree with Tom Davis that the past few years, we Democrats have had the wind at our backs. In 2005, we used that to our advantage in comparing Jerry Kilgore to the deeply unpopular George W. Bush. In 2006, we did the same thing in tying George Allen to Dubya. In 2008, we did the same thing in tying John McCain - and Congressional Republicans - to the Bush Spoiled Dog Food brand. Now, as Richard Nixon might say, we no longer have Dubya and Dick to kick around. So, yes, Tom Davis has a point about the wind no longer being at our backs.
Having said that, I definitely do NOT agree with Tom Davis that just because the "gale-force wind" is no longer at our backs, it's going to be blowing in our faces. Why, logically, would that follow? In fact, if Barack Obama remains popular, if the Democrats in Congress get things done, if the economy starts to turn around, then why wouldn't Democrats continue to find the political winds to be favorable? Also, if the Republicans continue moving hard right and making "no" their answer to everything, how will they convince moderate and swing voters to support them? I don't see it.
Finally, I'd caution at reading too much into a couple of special elections in the middle of the winter, and especially in the aftermath of a grueling 2-year presidential cycle. Yes, Democrats might be a bit tired and complacent right now, and that's something we have to work hard to counteract starting this November. But to conclude that this complacency will last, that Democrats will never wake up, that the thought of "Governor Taliban Bob" won't energize them this fall, is pretty hard to believe. I mean, sure, it's possible, but if that's what the Republicans are pinning their hopes on, we Democrats probably don't have a lot to worry about anytime soon.
